tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62414281265149610142024-03-07T01:30:07.135+05:30Money ManthanWe work hard for our Money.
Does our money work equally hard for us?
Let us explore the world of financial markets together.Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.comBlogger542125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-6959659441121733292024-01-26T19:11:00.000+05:302024-01-26T19:11:34.025+05:30Elliot counts revisited<p> Revisiting the Elliot counts,</p><p>1st wave 16828–20222 3394 points</p><p>2nd wave 20222 18838; </p><p>3rd wave unfolding</p><p>3.1 18838 22124 3283 points </p><p>3.2 23124 - 20875 or 20481</p><p>3.3 ???</p><p>3rd wave target can be 23k to 26k </p><p>Then 4th wave to follow and 5th truncated if 3rd wave is extended.</p><p>So target for Nifty 26 to 28k in H1.</p><p>Strategy book profits from 25k onwards</p>Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-62956556270317848172023-05-14T17:50:00.001+05:302023-05-14T17:50:46.493+05:30May 23: Election Results played out as usual<p> The Karnataka results are out and as expected the Congress has won the elections. I had predicted that the markets would do well till May and here we are a rally of about 1600 points on the Nifty. What lies next for the markets?</p><p>1. After the Karnataka elections now there will be people clamoring saying that the BJP is finished. 1 swallow does not make a summer. There would be elections at State level but Modi Government remains set for third term in 2024.</p><p>2. The monsoon forecasts do not look too good and that should cap a runaway rally in the markets. The monsoons have been good for at least the past 4 5 years and now right now a poor monsoon is on the cards.</p><p>3. The markets have rallied about 1600 points from the bottom in Jan Feb and are now within touching distance of previous highs. A correction is round the corner.</p><p>4. The recession has started in US and huge layoffs in IT companies in the US and in India are also muted pay hikes. The sentiment has been damaged. when the sentiment is damaged, people start spending less money. It is a self fulfilling prophecy.</p><p>5. We have come to the end of the rate hike cycle and that should bring relief to the home loan folks.</p><p>The markets should correct and that gives us a chance to reflect on what next to be done.</p><p><br /></p>Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-29736748567143873292023-04-03T17:18:00.001+05:302023-04-03T17:18:08.457+05:30April 23: Markets should still rally<p> The month of March has come and gone. The Markets were down by about 1.5 pc. This is the 4th month in a row markets have closed negative, Let us see what April has in store.</p><p>1. By law of probability, 5 red monthly candles have almost never happened. So April should be a positive month. The market has been oscillating around the 17000 mark.</p><p>2. The US Bank crisis should blow over. Inflation is rising and it is a localized issue. Interest Rates India should also rise by 25 basis points.</p><p>3. The Karnataka elections in May and results on May 13th will be a trend decider for the Indian markets. Till then the markets should rally.</p><p>4. In times of uncertainty, Gold always rises and Gold will do well.</p><p>5. The Indian markets have shown great resilience in times of global uncertainty so I expect them to do well and at least reach 18500 if not higher.</p><p>6. The Ukraine crisis will again come to a boil with Spring here and a fresh offensive being readied for a launch.</p><p>If I was an Indian investor, I would lock into high interest rates, focus on my short term debt portfolio, avoid equity markets and book profits in the existing portfolio.</p>Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-30267679050407649442023-03-01T10:59:00.000+05:302023-03-01T10:59:01.255+05:30March 23: Markets likely to rally<p> The budget has come and gone. The Adani saga also seems to be settling down, What does the month of March hold for the Indian Equity Markets? Let us try and explore.</p><p>1. Last 3 months the markets have fallen and a relief bounce of 8 - 10 pc is on the cards. 18500 to 19000 is the range we can expect if the market rallies. If the markets do not correct in Jan to March period, then May we have a bigger crash.</p><p>2. The real election results will be the Karnataka ones in early May. I see it very difficult for BJP to win. The current infighting, an ineffective Chief Minister coupled with JDS and a strong Congress in Karnataka.</p><p>3. In 2004, the Lok Sabha results were a a similar trigger.</p><p><a href="https://www.rediff.com/money/2005/jan/12market.htm">https://www.rediff.com/money/2005/jan/12market.htm</a></p><p>4. The weather forecast is not too promising. Hot summers followed by a poor monsoon means we are heading towards a deficient monsoon. We are also entering a period of election results. Nov 2023 has 3 other states MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh where again Chhattisgarh is a lost cause.</p><p>The Risk reward ratio becomes unfavorable above previous all time highs. At 16K it becomes favorable.</p><p>To summarize next 2-3 months, I am bullish but bearish in the longer term.</p><p>Let us evaluate in the first week of April which way we are headed.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-53563518823257974022023-02-04T17:39:00.001+05:302023-02-04T17:39:36.063+05:30Feb 23: Decoding the Budget and the Adani saga<p> As promised, restarting the blog after a sabbatical. My goal will be to publish it on a monthly basis at least. Let me start off with trying to decode 2 of the hottest events currently namely the budget and the Adani saga.</p><p>First of the budget:</p><p>1. The budget is a non event in most years and this year the main talking point was the sops given in the New Tax regime. Leaving the numbers aside, let us look at the big picture. The rightly stated goal of the Government is to do away with complex tax exemptions and simplify the tax process. For example till a few years ago we were submitting medical bills of Rs 15000 to get the exemption till the Government gave it to everybody scrapping the cumbersome process.</p><p>Similarly it will be better to scrap the home loan exemptions and straightaway give the benefit to everyone who buys an affordable home. When I as a middle class person bought an affordable home in 2015, I was pleasantly surprised to be given a tax refund of 2 lakhs at the time of possession by the Tatas in 2020 because the Government gave them the benefit.</p><p>The Old Regime will be sunset in a few years and only the new Regime should exist.</p><p>2. The second point which everyone missed was increasing the Senior Citizen Scheme limit to Rs 30 lakhs from 15 lakhs. While this is laudable, the rates of 8.1 pc are too low. The original rate of 9.3 % was correct. It is too much to expect people in the evening of their life to gamble in the markets. This anomaly needs to be addressed.</p><p>Rest all are policy issues and have almost no bearing on our day to day life just good entertainment.</p><p>Next is coming to the Adani saga:</p><p>1. It is purely a commercial short selling attack as very common in the US. As per the pro and anti Adani camps various stories are being embellished. Remove the outer layers and few things stand out.</p><p>a. The stock prices in PE terms are overpriced at 200 and 300 PE</p><p>b. Adani groups how solid assets like airports, ports, power distribution which have solid moats around them. So, the in the years ahead, the PE multiples will shrink as the profits catch up.</p><p>c. Such projects have long gestation periods and when they start spewing out cash, they become cash cows.</p><p>d. The correct PE to buy is 20 to 30 multiples for the kinds of businesses Adani is in.</p><p>It is best to cast away the hype and focus on the fundamentals. I assure you that is a very good way to get sound sleep at night.</p><p>So, enjoy the dramatics, focus on fundamentals and sleep well at night.</p><p>I feel the markets should do well till May. Let us see.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>1</p>Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-11980740288851521682021-08-10T18:05:00.000+05:302021-08-10T18:05:23.414+05:30Picking up the Threads<p> Last post in Jan 2021, I said we should reach 15-16k which we have reached. Now what next can we expect from the markets. I expect a correction now.</p><p>1. 1 possibility is we correct 7511 to 16300 odd levels. A rise of 8800 points can get corrected by at least 4000 points. Levels to watch out in this case are 12940,11935 or 10890.</p><p>2. Another possibility is A wave was 12500-7500, B wave till 16300 odd levels and C wave down till 8269.</p><p>Whichever way I look the direction is down only.</p><p>Long term prospects are excellent and I will capitalize on the falls in the market.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-38203911726179133102021-01-31T11:48:00.000+05:302021-01-31T11:48:10.783+05:30What does Elliot say about the markets<p> The markets tested new highs at 14753 and then there has been a violent correction of approx 1100 points so far. What does the future hold for the markets. Let us look at the fundamental and technical reasons affecting the markets.</p><p>Fundamentals:</p><p>1. Vaccine for Covid is here. The cases are going down and the economy is starting to fire. I see construction activity picking up and car sales sustaining. 2 sure shot indicators that the economy is doing well.</p><p>2. The US political scene is clear now and stabilized. The uncertainty is out of the way. Democrat control can mean more taxes but that is the only uncertainty.</p><p>3. The Indian budget is the immediate uncertainty for the markets. Once that is out of the way things should clear up.</p><p>Technicals:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1BIUbufvpp0I45qSiYVHNAN2jSdxkhwRJA1MWH6w9XX7VSQVD2jR1CAVmKyueAMRlfgNeuB7gcjiaFt4yWMJtFZeeS6VhTbwI_1Qv_eUcx24BmD83OnkCERJBsC1WxjX0y_nfGnjQaxc/s874/nifty31Jan20.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="874" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1BIUbufvpp0I45qSiYVHNAN2jSdxkhwRJA1MWH6w9XX7VSQVD2jR1CAVmKyueAMRlfgNeuB7gcjiaFt4yWMJtFZeeS6VhTbwI_1Qv_eUcx24BmD83OnkCERJBsC1WxjX0y_nfGnjQaxc/s320/nifty31Jan20.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p>We made a bottom at 7511.</p><p>1 count could be:</p><p>1. 7511- 9889 (2378 points)</p><p>2. 9889 - 8806 (1083 points)</p><p>3.1 8806 - 11794</p><p>3.2 11794 - 10790</p><p>3.3 - 10790 - 12025</p><p>3.4 12025 - 11535</p><p>3.5 11535 - 14753</p><p>Total 3rd wave is 5947 points which 2.26 times wave 1.</p><p>4th wave is correcting rise from 10790 to 14753 with targets of 13248, 12772 or 12303.</p><p>It could also be that 5 waves are complete at 14753 and we are correcting the whole rise.</p><p>My hypothesis is:</p><p>Wave 4 should end between 12500-13000 and we should have 1 more up move between 2500-3000 points to around 15-16 k before correcting entire up move.</p><p>Alternate theory is going back to 7511 which seems faint for now.</p><p><br /></p>Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-19182375303060106752020-08-30T10:39:00.000+05:302020-08-30T10:39:28.736+05:302020 H2 and beyond: where are our markets headed to?<p> The first half of the year has gone by and there has been lot of chaos and confusion since my last post. Covid 19 has wrecked havoc. My level of 10000 was comfortably violated and much more. Let us see what can happen in the future.</p><p>1. The market is awash with liquidity and disconnected with ground reality. Covid 19 blazes on relentlessly. I expect the markets to move up maybe make new highs and then re test the previous lows or 6500.</p><p>2. The markets will remain buoyant in the near future as the US Fed also is pumping in huge liquidity. Next few months will be very good for traders.</p><p>3. One must trade also only in blue chips else one can lose one's capital.</p><p>4. Gold remains a safe haven and is a buy on dips as a hedge.</p><p>5. US Presidential elections are a key turning point and if Trump loses or if there is chaos after the results the markets will nosedive.</p><p>The key things for a sustained bull run are:</p><p>1. Cure for Covid</p><p>2. Stable US Government</p><p>3. Stable Indian economic policies</p><p>Right now only point 3 is somewhat under control. The run up is factoring in that a cure for Covid is given, things will normalize. If bad loans start popping up as they will after the next quarter results, then the markets will correct.</p><p>It is a traders market not an investors markets. Use the rally to throw out laggards.</p><p>6350 were multiple tops in the past they will be strong support. 12400 will now be the new resistance points.</p>Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-15796096245908754382020-01-05T20:06:00.003+05:302020-01-05T20:06:33.623+05:302020 - What does it bring for the Indian Equity Markets?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
A new year and a new beginning awaits the equity markets. India is on the cusp of a major structural change. The reforms initiated by the Modi Government will now start bearing fruits. Let me summarize what I expect from 2020.<br />
<br />
Fundamentals:<br />
<br />
1. The Budget will try and put more money in the hands of the tax payers. Expect simplification of the tax structure. As it is the tax payer base is low so it does not make sense to penalize the honest tax payer.<br />
<br />
2. Expect the Cess on petrol and diesel to go up as it should be. Everyone fills petrol and diesel so everyone pays taxes. The black or white money debate is extinguished smoothly.<br />
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3. Expect disinvestment of PSUs. The Government has no business in running businesses and it should rightly step away.<br />
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4. Expect more pain in the short term but a bright long term future. Fast Tag is the best thing which was implemented in 2019. Leakage of revenue is stopped and transparency will be brought in.<br />
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5. Expect more political strife, more disruptions and more change.<br />
<br />
Technicals:<br />
<br />
1. 12300 is a key level. If it closes above this level decisively, then we can expect a rally to above 13000-13300.<br />
<br />
2. I still expect 10000 to be tested which may be totally wrong.<br />
<br />
A bright future awaits India and I expect the golden years to just begin. Nifty 25000 is not distant dream and i see it being achieved before the sun sets on the Modi era.<br />
<br />
Time will tell what the future holds for India. I predict a bright future.</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-42605501279190318322019-07-07T11:00:00.000+05:302019-07-07T11:00:20.130+05:30Budget 2019 and its implications<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Another budget came and went. This has significant implications as it is a forward looking budgets. Those looking for immediate results are likely to be disappointed.<br />
<br />
1. The Model Rent Act is a big step forward. due to archaic laws people are hesitant to rent out homes. This will help the infra space also.<br />
<br />
2. The hike in excise on Petrol and diesel is significant as it will help flush out black money. Even the non tax payers fill petrol and diesel so everyone pays taxes.<br />
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3. Lowering of promoter holding to 65 % will bring liquidity especially in the MNC stocks. It will lead to more participation by the retail population.<br />
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4. Borrowing in foreign currency will strengthen the rupee and keep interest rates low.<br />
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This budget is the first step in the long term roadmap towards the 5 trillion dollar economy mark. The markets will react negatively initially but over the long term it is a buying opportunity.<br />
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The time to invest in good stocks is now and they will reward investors over a 5 year period.<br />
<br />
11300-11500 can be considered as the base for the markets. The patient investor will be the one who will be rewarded.<br />
</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-69287291940169920852019-06-03T15:55:00.000+05:302019-06-03T15:55:13.367+05:30Markets in Modi 2.0<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The NDA and the BJP have won a resounding victory in the Lok Sabha elections. So, let us try and explore what the market dynamics will be going forward?<br />
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1. A strong government for the next 5 years means that economic reforms will continue to be carried out.<br />
<br />
2. In Rajya Sabha, the NDA will get a majority by the end of 2020. This will further ease the passage of various reform measures.<br />
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3. Blue chip companies will be the way forward. safe returns will come from such stocks and the market caps of Indian companies will grow multi fold.<br />
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4. In the next 5 years, expect at least 5 companies to have a market cap of Rs 10 lakh crores.<br />
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5. with the focus on Infrastructure, infrastructure related stocks will do very well.<br />
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6. For any economy to grow, banking and the finance sector will have to do very well.<br />
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7. Consumption driven themes will continue to do very well.<br />
<br />
Keeping all this in mind and with intermittent corrections, a peak of 16000 nifty is very much possible in the next 5 years. an upside for the nifty of 33 pc and for individual stocks multi bagger returns.</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-3367921415229491722019-04-21T18:43:00.000+05:302019-04-21T18:43:38.768+05:30Market Analysis for April 2019 - 2<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The markets closed up approx 1 pc to just below 11760. Let us look at the factors moving the markets.<br />
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1. The corporate results coming in are good. Heavyweights like Infy, TCS and HDFC Bank have posted good results. This is supporting the markets.<br />
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2. The FII flows in anticipation of Modi winning are robust. This is helping the markets move up.<br />
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3. The markets are now very close to the psychological level of 12000. Markets tend to correct from such milestones like they corrected last year from 11172.<br />
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4. Technically, on the weekly scale the RSI has scaled almost reached a reading of 70 which usually triggers some correction.<br />
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5. Right now, till May 23 I expect the markets to maintain a range of 11500-12000.<br />
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6. The monsoons have been predicted to be normal by IMD. Skymet has predicted below nrmal monsoons. <br />
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Overall a dull period for the markets, waiting for the outcome of election results. The markets seem to be factoring in all the good news. Any disappointment on the election or monsoon front will lead to correction.</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-46514947921511984332019-04-14T10:18:00.001+05:302019-04-14T10:18:17.076+05:30Market Analysis for April 2019 - 1<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Posting after a break and if we refer my last post of September 2018, the post was pretty much correct in terms of correction. We had a good 15 pc correction.<br />
<br />
The correction was from 11760-10004. <br />
<br />
In today's post, I would like to focus on the post election scenario and how things can play out.<br />
<br />
A very key indicator is the P/E ratio for the markets. Anything above 25 is perceived as a bubble territory.<br />
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The current P/E is 29.13 and the index is at 11643. This also means that with every 400 points movement in Nifty the P/E increases by 1.<br />
<br />
Let us look at this old chart I have posted.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://money-manthan.blogspot.com/2009/08/2-of-most-important-and-basic-analytic.html">https://money-manthan.blogspot.com/2009/08/2-of-most-important-and-basic-analytic.html</a><br />
<br />
This means we are in bubble territory already.<br />
<br />
Now, there can be 3 scenarios post elections:<br />
<br />
1. A Clear BJP Majority in which case there will be euphoria and we can expect the markets to go up another 1000 points or so. A top can be expected around 12500.<br />
<br />
2. NDA win with a weakened majority. In this case, a correction can be expected. We can expect 10000-10500.<br />
<br />
3. Unlikely but possible,opposition lead coalition. This would initially lead to a sharp correction much like in 2004. This will take us back to 9000-9500.<br />
<br />
What is the bottomline in all this? The earnings have to catch up with the Nifty. In the best case scenario also there is limited upside and it would be prudent to book profits if not before elections but definitely post elections.<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-9825452234348436412018-09-06T14:15:00.001+05:302018-09-06T14:15:05.290+05:30Market Analysis for September 2018<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The markets closed August at about 11680 which is a new
closing high for the Nifty. August was very bullish series for the markets.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1. With this, technically, the corrective A-B-C from 11172 can
be discarded with a down C leg pending. It means that the markets should
continue up between 11700-12000 and then correct.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
2. This corrective when it occurs will be a deeper correction.
The markets over the last few years have always given a 15-20 pc correction and
a buying opportunity.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
3.The correction when it occurs can be from 6926—11750 odd
levels . This will give good entry levels for stocks.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
4.Fundamentally, rupee is hitting all time lows and domestic
fuel prices are at all time highs.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The elections in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan would be held
in November and in the run up to elections markets are always very nervous.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
5.The uncertainty or rather the perceived uncertainty till May
2019 means no breakaway rally from here. Between last month and now, things
have deteriorated rather than improved.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
6.I am booking profits and taking out money. The last few
rupees let someone else take the profits, I would wait to buy on dips.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Markets always give opportunities to buy and current levels,
the risk reward profile is not matching.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The markets can remain higher for some more time but they
will have to correct before rallying up.</div>
</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-17336081429716712962018-08-01T11:16:00.002+05:302018-08-01T11:16:30.240+05:30Markets Analysis for August 2018<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The markets ended the month of July at 11356 an all time high closing. Let us look at the Technical and Fundamental factors which would impact the markets in the month of August<br />
<br />
Technicals:<br />
<br />
As per Elliot, we could be in a irregular correction, where starting from 11172, a 3 legged correction is progress.<br />
<br />
Wave A ended at 11172 - 9952 = 1220 points<br />
<br />
Wave B 9952 - 11356 and ongoing, in an irregular up move it can exceed the previous top and go above it and then correct.<br />
<br />
Wave C yet to unfold with targets of 10000 and below.<br />
<br />
This pullback rally is not a broad based rally and thats supports the thoery it is a corrective rally.<br />
<br />
The correction to 10000 and below would be a buying opportunity to a mega rally to about 16000 in the next 5 years. <br />
<br />
There are several fundamentals at play out here which support my hypothesis.<br />
<br />
Fundamentals:<br />
<br />
1. The biggest wildcard is that we are in an election year. Anything can happen in May 2019 and markets hate uncertainty. Markets function only on two emotions fear and greed. In Jan 2018, greed took the upper hand and now it is fear which is taking hold of the markets.<br />
<br />
2. The interest rates are rising and that is a bad sign for the equity markets. G Sec yileds near about 8 pc and likely to rise further. Spending picks up in an election year and thats fuels inflation. RBI has to keep hiking rates even at the cost of growth.<br />
<br />
3. Global headwinds in the times of Trump and trade wars continue to persist. No one knows how big a fire a small spark can light and whether it can be controlled.<br />
<br />
4. With rupee breaching all time highs (69) and acounting, oil imports become expensive, fiscal deficit increases and foreign funds lose out from the markets.<br />
<br />
5. One positive is the SIP money from domestic investors. How long it will flow in is the key?<br />
<br />
So what do we do?<br />
<br />
Book part profits where sitting on huge gains. Accumulate only those stocks you are willing to average at lower levels.<br />
<br />
We are as likely to see 9700 as we are to see 12000. A pre election rally seems unlikely to me.<br />
<br /></div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-73211622121882481712018-03-17T16:36:00.002+05:302018-03-17T16:36:17.100+05:30Probabilities for the Markets<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">We have seen the Nifty correcting from 11172 and there are a couple of probabilities in play.</span><br />
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
1. A leg was 11172 to 10276</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
B leg was 10276 to 10638</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
C leg is ongoing</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
C.1 is 10631 to 10141</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
C.2 10141 to 10478</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
C.3 ongoing</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
2. The next possibility is all this is A leg down followed by corrective 600 700 point rally ending with a fall to 9500-9700.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
In the case of 1st option, fall can end between 9900-10100.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
In the case of second option, a bounce followed by new lows.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
In both scenarios, it makes sense to deploy at least 50 pc cash in hand now.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-40483933778127823952018-02-18T11:40:00.000+05:302018-02-18T11:40:04.151+05:30No Clarity yet in the markets<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: medium;">Last week, we had considered 2 possibilities in the market. Both still remain alive.</span><br />
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: large;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: large;">
1. The down move is still not complete and a low is pending at 10000-10100 followed by 500-600 point rally.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: large;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: large;">
2. A wave is complete, followed by a rally to 10700-10900 and then a final leg down to C.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: large;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: large;">
Breach of 10398 means down move is not complete and breach of 10640 means we are headed to 10800-10900.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: large;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: large;">
Investors can buy at 10100, sell at 10800</div>
</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-78959104850029366122018-02-10T10:30:00.002+05:302018-02-10T10:30:57.130+05:30Longer term correction sets in<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="mail-message expanded" id="m3479414841203833871" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<div class="mail-message-content collapsible zoom-normal mail-show-images " style="margin: 16px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word;">
<div class="clear">
<div dir="auto">
The markets lost over 300 points on closing basis to close at 10454. There are several assumptions which may need to change following last week massive fall.<div dir="auto">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto">
1. It was assumed that this is a sub wave 4 fall and a last wave up was pending. Now this probability has the least likelihood.</div>
<div dir="auto">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto">
2. Most likely, the entire up move from December 16 to Jan 18 is being corrected.</div>
<div dir="auto">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto">
3. 2 possibilities, the first down move ended at 10276, we are heading to 10725 to 10829 region before the next down move commences.</div>
<div dir="auto">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto">
4. The first down move is not yet over and we head lower to 10000-10100 range.</div>
<div dir="auto">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto">
The wave 3 from 11117 to 10276 was extended, about 841 points so wave 5 can be a smaller wave, till 10118 followed by a 600 point counter rally.</div>
<div dir="auto">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto">
Either ways in the near term we are headed up.</div>
<div dir="auto">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto">
For traders, 10000-10100 is buying zone and 10700-10800 selling zone.</div>
<div dir="auto">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto">
For investors, 10100 is a 1 buying zone and 9500-9700 second buying zone.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="mail-message-footer spacer collapsible" style="height: 0px;">
</div>
</div>
</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-82318735366261714132018-02-03T11:05:00.002+05:302018-02-03T11:05:38.114+05:30Technical Analysis for week 5th Feb 2018<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">The markets closed at 10760 down from a 52 week high of 11172. Let us look at the technical analysis.</span><br />
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
1. Wave 1 from 9687 to 10490 a gain of 803 points.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
2. Wave 2 corrected to 10033, a loss of 457 points or a correction of 57 pc.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
3. Wave 3 started from 10033 to 11172, a gain of 1139 points.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
4. Wave 4 started from 11172.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
A is 11172 - 10878 equal to 294 points</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
B is 10878 - 11117 equal to 239 points</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
C is 11117 to 10736 ongoing so far 381 points.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
If C is 1.618 times A target is 10641.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
Now 2 probabilities from here, 5 the wave starts for at least 800 points from here or it is abc x abc correction.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
Targets of x can be 200 to 350 points.</div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
<br /></div>
<div dir="auto" style="font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">
So, if 1 more abc down then that will start from 10900- 11000 to 10500.</div>
</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-6991032316682851992017-08-13T12:30:00.000+05:302017-08-13T12:31:22.240+05:30Technical Picture<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The ferocity of last week fall took everyone but surprise. It throws up some very interesting possibilities.1. The fall was 452 points the previous largest fall was only 261 points.<br />
<br />
2. The fall has 3 distinct legs A 10137-9981 B 9981-10081 C 10081- 9685.<br />
<br />
3. Now, this could be the last fall or there could be a corrective up move before next round of fall. This could be if structure is ABC X ABC<br />
<br />
4. If that is the case we could retrace to 9857, 9911 or 9964.4. The next leg of fall could take us 9450 to 9500 levels.Right now, let us consider these 2 possibilities only. Above 10050 we can expect new highs. <br />
<br />
At 9500 odd levels, we would have retraced entire 7894 to 10137 by about 30 pc fulfilling the criteria for correction. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-77109104760938427612017-08-06T12:40:00.001+05:302017-08-06T12:40:53.050+05:30Long Term looks Bright<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The markets continue to sustain above the Mount 10 K mark on the Nifty. Let us see what the next 6 months hold for the markets.<br />
<br />
1. The GST rollout seems to be smooth with very few glitches. This bodes well for the markets in general. GST rollout was a major worry for the markets.<br />
<br />
2. The monsoons have been fairly normal except few parts of Southern India. This is another major trigger out of the way.<br />
<br />
3. Globally, the markets have settled in a nice bullish sentiment. Unless something drastic happens, the global cues will be supportive.<br />
<br />
4. There seems to be no political threat to the Government.<br />
<br />
The only negative factor seems to be tension with China. This may lead to small intra day or intra week corrections, but China has too much invested in India to seriously endanger its big market for a small piece of land.<br />
<br />
This is a market which is a buy on dips market. A 400- 500 point correction will definitely come but when is the big question.</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-8013533130688563732017-07-16T12:12:00.000+05:302017-07-16T12:12:01.503+05:30Bull market rally knows no top<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The markets have started moving on the back of good monsoons and also due to no major glitches in GST implementation. In spite of the rise there are some points to be considered.<br />
<br />
1. The rise from 7893 to 9913 has almost been vertical with no meaningful correction. The max correction has been about 250 points.<br />
<br />
2. There should be 1 correction of 400 to 500 points pending, whether it will occur now before we reach 10500 or post that is a matter of conjecture.<br />
<br />
3. 10500 has been an Elliot wave target and looks like we will reach there by Diwali.<br />
<br />
4. Classic signs of some kind of frenzy is apparent, newspapers headlines are talking about sensex, new listings are tripling, the OLA cab drivers are trading.<br />
<br />
5. During the 2008 frenzy these were the classic signs. I remember in that frenzy I managed to be interviewed by NDTV as well as made the front pages of DNA with my opinions.<br />
<br />
6. How do we play this? Part booking of profits is a must. Good quality stocks is another way of safeguarding one from the markets vagaries.<br />
<br />
7. One must not forget, we alwayys get second chances in the markets, 6825 in Feb 2015, 7893 in 2016 November, we still may get some chance.<br />
<br />
8. 8940 the pre election gap of March 2017 I think will not be filled for years. It will be known as the Modi gap. Same as 3700 is the UPA gap.<br />
<br />
There are still undervalued gems in the market and they can still be bought. I see the next few years as the Modi years or the golden years in Indian history.</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-1448922730263704012017-06-18T12:10:00.001+05:302017-06-18T12:10:23.249+05:30GST and Progress of Monsoons to be watched<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
June has so far been a boring month for the markets. The indices have moved in a very tight range. Mid caps have corrected quite a lot. The next triggers for the markets are the Monsoon progress and the GST implementation.<br />
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1. The progress of the Monsoons by the end of the month will be closely watched for its impact on the markets. The positives have all been factored in.<br />
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2. The date for GST rollout has been set for July 1st and anything more than teething troubles will be taken negatively by the markets.<br />
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3. Globally, the rate hike by the Fed has taken the rates to 1.25 %. What no one realizes is that higher the rates go in the US, lesser is the cushion for a rate cut in India.<br />
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4. Globally, there do not seem to be any major negative triggers and that is 1 reason the markets are in a somnolent range.<br />
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5. The markets have risen from 7893 to 9700 levels without any major correction. The maximum the markets have corrected is 200 points. A correction of 500-600 points will come at some point of time.<br />
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6. Trump seems to have settled down in the US. So, negative triggers reduce from the US. He always will be the unpredictable wild card.<br />
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Strategy remains to buy on dips with periodic profit booking.</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-19045154734422548312017-06-04T12:25:00.001+05:302017-06-04T14:16:40.982+05:30Mid caps the focus now<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The Nifty continues to go up slowly but steadily. The real story is in the midcaps where there are bigger swings. Many corrected about 20 pc or more when the index corrected barely about 2 - 3 pc.<br />
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1. The mid caps which one can look are the mid caps which will become the large caps tomorrow. The real cream is in these stocks.<br />
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2. To quote an example. a food retailer which had listed in March corrected about 20 pc from the top before resuming its upward journey.<br />
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3. The sectors which will do well now are Capital goods, consumption driven themes, housing finance companies. private banks.<br />
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4. The markets may correct in June. In all this talk of rally, there is a good 400-500 point correction pending. So far all corrections are limited to 200 points.<br />
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5. The GST rollout in July 1st will be the next big thing. It should go through smoothly with niggling teething troubles.<br />
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6. Mid caps which are high growth, low debt should be the focus areas.<br />
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7. Pharma stocks represent a long term buying opportunity. Every dip is a buy.<br />
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When Nifty corrects. the mid cap correction will be magnified and that is the time to buy.<br />
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Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6241428126514961014.post-56792648886095239842017-05-21T11:38:00.000+05:302017-05-21T11:38:02.173+05:30Long overdue correction happening<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
The markets for due for a correction and that is what we are seeing now. Trump effect does it act as a trigger for a more pronounced correction or it something for the very short term.<br />
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1. The maximum correction so far has been 200 points. This takes us to 9330. If it is a wave correcting the entire up move then it will last much longer and one can expect the election gap of 8940 to be tested.<br />
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2. Domestically, there are no major triggers in the coming months.<br />
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3. This is a bull market no mistake about it and every correction is a buying opportunity.<br />
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4. The Pharma and the IT stocks are in a prolonged bear market and they will take some time to recover.<br />
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5. The eventual targets for this markets on the Nifty are between 10500 and 12000/<br />
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6. The markets will follow the US market moves which will follow the antics of Donald trump It is not that easy to impeach a US President.<br />
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7. The GST rates announced are fair and reasonable.<br />
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8. Gold prices can spike up on every Trump crisis that erupts. <br />
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Every dip is a buying opportunity and the smooth rollout of GST will be watched. The onset of Monsoons will be an important trigger for the markets.</div>
Nishit Vadhavkarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03671764476546442120noreply@blogger.com0