Sunday, December 4, 2016

The Down move resumes

The markets almost tested the 50 pc retracement of the fall from the top made after Trump election and then the down move seems to have continued.

1. A dip below 8000 will confirm that the downtrend has resumed.

2. A key feature of this down trend has been the non stop selling by the FIIs. The DIIs have stepped n and bought a large quantity else we would have been at 7500.

3. The first half of December will have the RBI policy meet coming up, the US Fed meet and all the action is expected in the first 15 days. I expect the first 15-20 days to be negative and then the markets will pick up.

4. Elliot wise a last leg of fall of 700 to 1000 points is pending. I expect 7500-7600 to hold.

5. The RBI will have to go in for a 25 basis points cut. They are now behind the yield curve that is the rates have fallen below the rates.

6. The auto sector seems to be resilient and  the sales of 4 wheelers have not dropped dramatically as expected.

Every dip is a buying opportunity and one should take advantage of this fall.

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Corrective Up Move

This week Nifty made a bottom at 7916 and that bottom held for 4 trading sessions after that. The market will look for cues from the RBI meet.

1. The markets took support at the Bollinger Band. The market is correcting the down move from 8598 to 7916 and one can expect an up move till 8185, 8257 or 8337.

2. The RBI has come out with a  notification saying 100 pc CRR for incremental money kept with it from Sept 16. What this means is right now in the wave of demonetization, the banks were keeping money with the Reserve Bank and getting 6.25 % interest, taking the money from the public at 4 %/ So, the banks were earning 2.25 % as arbitrage money. Now, they would be forced to lend aggressively bring down the lending rates.

3. The RBI policy meet on the 7th of December and the US Fed meeting are the next 2 triggers for the Markets.

4. I expect the correction to be over in December, the demonetization mess also seems to be clearing up.

Every decline is a buying opportunity. 7650-7800 seems to be a good base for the markets.

Sunday, November 20, 2016

FIIs continue to Sell

The markets continue their negative bias as the FIIs continued to sell. Thsi week there may be a short technical bounce due to expiry.

1. The markets have a strong support at 8000 which has been tested once. Such supports give way at the third or fourth test of it.

2. The big event of December would be Fed rate hike in US and that may coincide with the bottom formation process.

3. The rise from 6825 to 8967 took 6.5 months so it would be reasonable to expect the correction to consume 3 to 4 month. The top was om 7th of September.

4. In December 2011, there was an important bottom formation in December.

5. The Demonetization ruckus will die in about a months time and the Banking sector would be a major winner.

6. 82580-8350 are the immediate resistances and the supports are at 7950-8000.

7600-8000 will be a major buy zone for the markets for a final burst towards 10000-11000 Nifty which will define the first term of Modi in office.

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Short term Pain Long Term Gain

Whichever I look at the charts, short term there may be pain but long term we are in a uptrend.

1. The markets may correct upto 8230, 8125, 8000 or worst case 7896.

2. On the upside 8600 is a firm wall, only on breach of that we can think of new highs.

3. The demonetization will have the banks leading the next way of up move.

4. Donald Trump has already started changing his rhetoric, reality will be different.

Right now, the markets are unstable but in the month of November we may see a major low in place.

The FII outflow happened in August 2013, after that we rallied from 5118 to 9119, same way we should rally after the dust has settled.

Sunday, November 6, 2016

Correction should end soon

The markets corrected this week too and if it is only a bull market correction, it should end with a Hillary Clinton win. If Trump win it means we are in an extended bear market.

There are 2 charts which suggest a bounce may be coming.

1. Trendline chart

2. RSI chart is very near its support levels.

Also EW, 1st fall was 8968 to 8556 = 412 points this fall 8807 to 8400 equal to 407 points,

If Trump wins we may hit 8200.

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Happy Diwali

The correction in the markets seems to be ending. Diwali is here and the markets look to bounce.

1. The Tatas fight has dampened the sentiment. That was 1 of the main reasons markets corrected.
2. The bottom should be in place or 100 200 points away but a rally of 1000 points on the Nifty is due.
3. Clinton seems to be winning and that will have a positive effect on the markets, a Trump  win would lead to a disarray as markets do not like move away from status quo.
4. Diwali sales seem to be good and that is a sign of economic turnaround.
5. Nifty bounced from the support zone of 8550. I think the next move would be post the US elections.Enjoy a safe and happy Diwali.

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Correction should end soon

The markets corrected as expected this week and this fall is showing all signs of a slow correctons, it should end soon.

1. Corrections are typically slow and markets float down. They last for 6 to 8 weeks and do not have any real momentum in them.

2. Correction comes in a 3 legged form . So we had leg A 8968 to 8555, leg B 8555 to 8808 and leg C. Leg C can be upto 8395, 8852 or  8140.

There is a possibility that this correction is over.

Elliot states that final targets can be as high as 10500 so next week may be the last buying opportunity.

Next week, I will try and look at sectors which can be stars going ahead.

We may dip 100 200 points more but I do not see markets falling more. Hillary Clinton victory as seems likely will send the markets soaring. A Trump win however unlikely it may seem will lead to markets crashing.

Sunday, October 9, 2016

Markets correct...buying opportunity presents

The markets have completed their short up move in the midst of correction and the downward move has resumed.

1. The C wave down has commenced after retracing the down move from 8968 to 8555 by 61 pc. The down move was 413 points. For equailty, this down can go to 8395.

2. The RBI rate cuts came and went, they had no impact on the markets. This shows the markets are consolidating for the moment.

3. In about a week's time, the pre Diwali rally may start, taking us to new highs.

4. Hillary Clinton winning the elections would be another positive for the markets..Donald Trump seems to be losing it.

5. The US Fed hike will happen in December in all probability.

I expect the next 10 days to give us the best buying opportunity in the next 1 year.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

Buying Opportunity is here

Markets corrected last week finally. The technicals were indicating a correction.  The event in the form of surgical strikes arrived.

1. The lower levels mentioned have arrived and we bounced from 8558, we could bounce to 8750 before ending the correction at 8450.

2. The crisis seems to have blown over and the markets gave a good dip in the last 2 days.

3. The RBI policy on 4th October will be keenly watched, I expect at max a 25 basis point cut. Before the end of this year one can expect a 50 basis points cut.

4. Globally, OPEC has agreed to cut oil supplies, which if it happens can lead to a short spike in oil prices.

5. IF we look at this up move,
Wave 1 was 6825 to 7992 approx 1167 points
 Wave  2 was 7992 to 7715 approx 277 points
 Wave 3 was 7715 to 8970 approx 1255 points
 Wave 4 8970 to 8558 approx 412 points and on going

I expect the correction to end around 8450 and then final burst to 9500 to 10500.
It is a buy on dips market.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Range bound markets provide buying opportunity

The markets failed to break the previous high and are back in the 8640-8850 trading range. There are several scenarios which can happen from here and let us take a look at each of them.
1. Corrections are always 3 legged, 2 legs down sandwiching 1 leg up aka ABC correction. As per this we are in tricky B wave which may be over or may get over at anytime. First leg down was 280 points till 8688 from 8968.Second leg up till 8893 a retracement of 73 pc and a final leg down till 8613,8537 or 8440.
 2. The second alternative is that the markets go straight up. A break of 8968 will lead to test of fresh new highs.
3. We continue this range bound exercise for few days more. A break of 8640 can lead to 8440 and a break of 8850 will lead to 9050. Note the significance of plus minus 200 points, 8440 is a significant support and 9119 is a significant resistance.
4. The results season will start in 2 weeks and the results month is usually a range bound month.
The most likely scenario is some correction and then fresh highs by Diwali. This will fulfill the rangebound criteria as the same levels will be traversed in both up and down directions.

Buying on dips and booking profits partially is the best choice in the current scenario. Global cues will be benign for sometime to come.