Sunday, October 30, 2016

Happy Diwali

The correction in the markets seems to be ending. Diwali is here and the markets look to bounce.

1. The Tatas fight has dampened the sentiment. That was 1 of the main reasons markets corrected.
2. The bottom should be in place or 100 200 points away but a rally of 1000 points on the Nifty is due.
3. Clinton seems to be winning and that will have a positive effect on the markets, a Trump  win would lead to a disarray as markets do not like move away from status quo.
4. Diwali sales seem to be good and that is a sign of economic turnaround.
5. Nifty bounced from the support zone of 8550. I think the next move would be post the US elections.Enjoy a safe and happy Diwali.

Sunday, October 16, 2016

Correction should end soon

The markets corrected as expected this week and this fall is showing all signs of a slow correctons, it should end soon.

1. Corrections are typically slow and markets float down. They last for 6 to 8 weeks and do not have any real momentum in them.

2. Correction comes in a 3 legged form . So we had leg A 8968 to 8555, leg B 8555 to 8808 and leg C. Leg C can be upto 8395, 8852 or  8140.

There is a possibility that this correction is over.

Elliot states that final targets can be as high as 10500 so next week may be the last buying opportunity.

Next week, I will try and look at sectors which can be stars going ahead.

We may dip 100 200 points more but I do not see markets falling more. Hillary Clinton victory as seems likely will send the markets soaring. A Trump win however unlikely it may seem will lead to markets crashing.

Sunday, October 9, 2016

Markets correct...buying opportunity presents

The markets have completed their short up move in the midst of correction and the downward move has resumed.

1. The C wave down has commenced after retracing the down move from 8968 to 8555 by 61 pc. The down move was 413 points. For equailty, this down can go to 8395.

2. The RBI rate cuts came and went, they had no impact on the markets. This shows the markets are consolidating for the moment.

3. In about a week's time, the pre Diwali rally may start, taking us to new highs.

4. Hillary Clinton winning the elections would be another positive for the markets..Donald Trump seems to be losing it.

5. The US Fed hike will happen in December in all probability.

I expect the next 10 days to give us the best buying opportunity in the next 1 year.

Sunday, October 2, 2016

Buying Opportunity is here

Markets corrected last week finally. The technicals were indicating a correction.  The event in the form of surgical strikes arrived.

1. The lower levels mentioned have arrived and we bounced from 8558, we could bounce to 8750 before ending the correction at 8450.

2. The crisis seems to have blown over and the markets gave a good dip in the last 2 days.

3. The RBI policy on 4th October will be keenly watched, I expect at max a 25 basis point cut. Before the end of this year one can expect a 50 basis points cut.

4. Globally, OPEC has agreed to cut oil supplies, which if it happens can lead to a short spike in oil prices.

5. IF we look at this up move,
Wave 1 was 6825 to 7992 approx 1167 points
 Wave  2 was 7992 to 7715 approx 277 points
 Wave 3 was 7715 to 8970 approx 1255 points
 Wave 4 8970 to 8558 approx 412 points and on going

I expect the correction to end around 8450 and then final burst to 9500 to 10500.
It is a buy on dips market.