Monday, December 28, 2009

Markets Next Week: Technicals

The rally took the market to 5178. How are we placed technically. Lets take a look at few of the Technicals which could give us a clue about the markets.

1. The lower end of the Bollinger Band was touched and at around 4950 and then the markets rebounded. The Bollinger bands had narrowed and now they have started widening. The upper end has moved to 5208 from 5181 and the width was around 230 points when the bands were narrow. This could mean a rally till 5310.

2. The markets took support from around the 50 EMA, and I have observed whenever the markets take support around this level, they do not touch the 50 EMA again for at least 2-3 weeks. The supports are at 5062 and 5001.

3. The trend line joining the tops from June gives a Target of around 5400.

4. On the weekly charts, the supports are at 5159 and 5076.

5, If we take a 5 wave up move from 4539, wave 1 ended at 5181, wave 2 at 4807, wave 3 at 5182, wave 4 at 4944. Wave 3 is never the shortest of 1,3 and 5. So, it should be less than wave 3 and end before 5319.
Alternatively, if this count is wrong, we could go higher.

Friday, December 25, 2009


It was a mind-blowing rally on D-Street. The Nifty rallied to close at 2009 closing high of 5178. Santa Claus had come to town. Lets see where we can go from here.

It was a Bear Trap nicely set by having huge OI built at 5000 and 5100 calls. This is the third month running that OI has been used to mislead the punters.

The Markets rallied as anticipated from 4944, key support areas. They retraced all the losses made in 5-6 sessions in a couple of sessions. The Faster retracement theory states that this is a fresh up move.

The FIIs made huge purchases on both Wednesday and Thursday thus debunking that they are on vacations.

The FM came out with rosy GDP projections which proved to be trigger. Remember the Government has massive disinvestment to be made while the going is good. Expect more such noises.

The Dollar Index rallied from 74 to 78. It may retrace a few of the gains made. This rally in Indian equities has some more steam left.

The famous December - April effect will now come into play. I will post more on that later.

The US markets look all set to rally to their next pivot point of S&P 1166. That is a good 4 pc more up-move.

5300-5350 seems to be the next target areas based on both fundamental and technical factors.

I continue to SIP in Gold.

Remember while enjoying the present, on must plan for the future. What 2010 holds is a different post altogether. Lets use these holidays to plan for 2010.

Enjoy your Investing.

One could play this up-move by buying Reliance at CMP with strict stop losses.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Dollar Index Rises, Nifty down

Last week, we had spoken about the Dollar Index rising and its implications on our markets. The markets shed wait in the last 2 trading sessions and the Nifty is now at 4987. So, where do we go from here?

1. The Nifty broke the support line from the November lows. The support at the trend line joining the lows from July comes to around 4860. This is a very crucial support line, breach of which means the rally from March lows may be over.

2. The 50 EMA at 4990 and 20 EMA at 5056 have been breached. The 50 EMA is a very strong support and the markets may bounce up from current support levels. The Markets had bounced from 50 EMA in August.

3. The 61.8% of the rise from 4807 to 5182 comes to around 4950 a key support level.

4. The 5 week low ema which the market had taken support during the Dubai crisis comes to around 4940.

5. The maximum open interest in Puts is at 4900 and in calls is at 5100 and 5200. The next week is a truncated week and volumes would be light.

6. The inflation is running away and the government would have to raise Interest Rates. It would not help much as this is Supply Side inflation not Demand side inflation.

7. The Dollar Index rising would lead to Dollar Carry trade unwinding and also commodities becoming cheaper. Good time to SIP in Gold.

8. The Bollinger band top is at 5181 and bottom is at 4960. The Bands have narrowed so a breakout on either sides would give additional 200 points. This means 4750 or 5380. The index does not stay out of the band too long. So, the markets may bounce in a day or two. If they do not, then indices would decline further.

9. I would go long on break of 5038 on closing basis. Stop loss for shorts would be 5025.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Watch the Dollar Index

The Indian markets ended almost flat for the weekly forming a weekly doji. A Doji depicts indecision and usually signifies a top or a bottom.
The Nifty made a triple top at 5182. So does this mean the rally has ended?
There just might be juice left for 1 final blow out rally upto 5350 or 18000 sensex. For that to happen, the indices may need to dip a bit.

1. The max open interest is at 5200 call for December series and 4900-5000 puts.This means lots of people have interests (Option writers are usually big institutions) to cap this up move at current levels for this month.

2. The Bollinger bands are at 4980 at the lower side and 5184 on the upper side. The Bollinger bands are mostly respected by the indices. The Bollinger bands are narrowing down implying a big down or up move is coming (+- 500 nifty points)

2a. The RSI is making a negative divergence. First time nifty hit 5181, it was at 63, then 59 and now 55. Price usually follows the indicators.

3. The 50 ema is at 4978, the 5 week low ema is at 4920. Usually these levels are respected by the indices.

4. Its the Christmas season and foreign brokerages will soon do some profit booking and go on vacation. I expect the usual December Jan rally to kick in for 1 final swing. But this should happen in the next series.

5. The US markets are rage bound and S&P is oscillating between 2 pivots 1091 and 1106. It needs to convincingly break either these 2 for a breakout or breakdown.

6. The Dollar Index is at 2 months high and this means commodities like gold, oil will become cheaper. The sovereign debts of countries like Greece and Spain are i question. December 14th is a key date for Nakheel bond repayment.

7. The dollar index may retrace its current up move before a final swing up. I would watch the 77-77.5 levels closely.

To summarize, I feel a dip to 4900-4950 is most likely with a final blow out rally of 1500-2000 points on the sensex.