Sunday, March 26, 2017

March year end considerations

The week gone by was pretty much flat and I expect the current week to trend with a positive bias.

1. March 31st is the year end NAV time. Many of the fund managers have their bonus based on this. This month the DIIs have been sellers and I epect them to turn buyers the next week.

2. The post election results gap still has not been filled till 8935. Many times such gaps remain unfilled. This gap can remain unfilled if we have a final blow out rally till 9400 or 9500 and then a 400 500 point correction.

3. This market seems to have entered into a bull run and I do not expect any correction beyond 400-500 points on the Nifty.

4. Financials, Autos and selective Pharma stocks remain my top pick.

5. Global cues are stable and I do not foresee any trigger from them and the next doemstic triggers are only after the 10th of april with the full year results.

6. The markets are usually range bound, or negative at the time the Results are declared and I expect the same this time around too.

All in all, we are in a bull run for now with all corrections to be bought into. Also, by booking profits periodically we keep ourselves safe.

Let us see f the NAV pumping comes true the next week.

Monday, March 13, 2017

New Highs followed by 400-500 point correction

UP Results are out and the BJP has got a resounding victory beyond what even the most optimistic exit poll could forecast. This would mean that the markets would rally in the near time and we would go to fresh all time highs.

1. The SGX Nifty is at 9100 and the markets would easily scale Mount 9200. Now, the counts are very clear. We are in a long term bull market.

2. The first wave began in 2001 and ended at 6353 in 2008.

 Second wave corrected this from 6353 to 2252.

The Third and the most powerful wave is in progress.

3.1 2252 to 9119
3.2 9119 to 6825
3.3.1 6825 to 8968
3.3.2 8968 to 7893 7893 and ongoing

Within this, end in a few days between 9200 and 9300. Then we will have a correction of 400-600 point which would be a very good buying opportunity.

This also means that the next 2 years will be very good for the stock markets. Book profits in the highs of this week and buy the stocks back at every dip.