Sunday, January 5, 2020

2020 - What does it bring for the Indian Equity Markets?

A new year and a new beginning awaits the equity markets. India is on the cusp of a major structural change. The reforms initiated by the Modi Government will now start bearing fruits. Let me summarize what I expect from 2020.

Fundamentals:

1. The Budget will try and put more money in the hands of the tax payers. Expect simplification of the tax structure. As it is the tax payer base is low so it does not make sense to penalize the honest tax payer.

2. Expect the Cess on petrol and diesel to go up as it should be. Everyone fills petrol and diesel so everyone pays taxes. The black or white money debate is extinguished smoothly.

3. Expect disinvestment of PSUs. The Government has no business in running businesses and it should rightly step away.

4. Expect more pain in the short term but a bright long term future. Fast Tag is the best thing which was implemented in 2019. Leakage of revenue is stopped and transparency will be brought in.

5. Expect more political strife, more disruptions and more change.

Technicals:

1. 12300 is a key level. If it closes above this level decisively, then we can expect a rally to above 13000-13300.

2.  I still expect 10000 to be tested which may be totally wrong.

A bright future awaits India and I expect the golden years to just begin. Nifty 25000 is not distant dream and i see it being achieved before the sun sets on the Modi era.

Time will tell what the future holds for India. I predict a bright future.