Decisive week Ahead

Markets have been stuck in the trading range of 8540 to 8728 for almost a month. The previous expiry is over and now I feel we should get clarity this week on breakout or breakdown.

1. There are no major triggers for the markets now. All the positives have been factored.

2.A break of 8540 should give us 8350 or a breakout should give us 8950. A correction is welcome before we test new highs. Also 8650/is 80 pc resistance of 9119 to 6875 correction, so the current time pass at these levels is expected. Once it breaks 8750 expect a super duper rally.

3. DHFL bonds are coming up again. It has yields up to 9.25 pc and are listed on the NSE offering easy liquidity. This is 1 good diversification.

4. The global triggers are missing for the moment but we are approaching the month of September which is for some reason a volatile month globally.

5. The strategy remains the same, buy on dip, stick to good quality names and average if the stick goes down, book part profits if it goes up. Reduce risk, one cannot eliminate risk but minimise risk.

Urijit Patel appointment signals all time highs coming soon

Modi government has signalled it's biggest intent of commitment to reforms by this appointment. What does it mean?
1. Government agreed with Governor Rajan policies and signal Continuity. Patel was Rajan right hand.
 2. No rate cuts, Patel is in Rajan mould.
3. Bond yields will rise in short term, 7.17 pc can goto 7.3 pc.
4.Markets may correct knee jerk if at all they do, but new highs coming mostly till Diwali.
5. Long time back I was saying 10500, we will get there eventually. 
6. 80 pc retracement of 9119 6825 is 8660, close above this on consistent basis implies new highs or testing of 9119.
.7. Sectors to watch out for are Banking, Pharma, defence, Infrastructure especially road building.This has been a Special, masterstroke, cut a popular Governor to size and yet retain the cream.


It feels good to restart blogging, my 1 month break is over. I am back.