Technical Picture

The ferocity of last week fall took everyone but surprise. It throws up some very interesting possibilities.1. The fall was 452 points the previous largest fall was only 261 points.

2. The fall has 3 distinct legs A 10137-9981 B 9981-10081 C 10081- 9685.

3. Now, this could be the last fall or there could be a corrective up move before next round of fall. This could be if structure is ABC X ABC

4. If that is the case we could retrace to 9857, 9911 or 9964.4. The next leg of fall could take us 9450 to 9500 levels.Right now, let us consider these 2 possibilities only. Above 10050 we can expect new highs.

 At 9500 odd levels, we would have retraced entire 7894 to 10137 by about 30 pc fulfilling the criteria for correction.

Long Term looks Bright

The markets continue to sustain above the Mount 10 K mark on the Nifty. Let us see what the next 6 months hold for the markets.

1. The GST rollout seems to be smooth with very few glitches. This bodes well for the markets in general. GST rollout was a major worry for the markets.

2. The monsoons have been fairly normal except few parts of Southern India. This is another major trigger out of the way.

3. Globally, the markets have settled in a nice bullish sentiment. Unless something drastic happens, the global cues will be supportive.

4. There seems to be no political threat to the Government.

The only negative factor seems to be tension with China. This may lead to small intra day or intra week corrections, but China has too much invested in India to seriously endanger its big market for a small piece of land.

This is a market which is a buy on dips market. A 400- 500 point correction will definitely come but when is the big question.