The budget has come and gone. The Adani saga also seems to be settling down, What does the month of March hold for the Indian Equity Markets? Let us try and explore.
1. Last 3 months the markets have fallen and a relief bounce of 8 - 10 pc is on the cards. 18500 to 19000 is the range we can expect if the market rallies. If the markets do not correct in Jan to March period, then May we have a bigger crash.
2. The real election results will be the Karnataka ones in early May. I see it very difficult for BJP to win. The current infighting, an ineffective Chief Minister coupled with JDS and a strong Congress in Karnataka.
3. In 2004, the Lok Sabha results were a a similar trigger.
https://www.rediff.com/money/2005/jan/12market.htm
4. The weather forecast is not too promising. Hot summers followed by a poor monsoon means we are heading towards a deficient monsoon. We are also entering a period of election results. Nov 2023 has 3 other states MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh where again Chhattisgarh is a lost cause.
The Risk reward ratio becomes unfavorable above previous all time highs. At 16K it becomes favorable.
To summarize next 2-3 months, I am bullish but bearish in the longer term.
Let us evaluate in the first week of April which way we are headed.
