It was a super Thursday, the markets just rose and rose on good volumes.
Is this the new bull run?
The Markets has rallied on lots of dollars being pumped. Now, 1 more trillion is going to be pumped in as per the G-20.
Either Obama is going to spectacularly succeed or spectacularly fail.
The Toxic asset waste if the government wanted to solve it, they could have bought the entire toxic asset. Now its a gamble with the private sector being a party to the deal. So who will do the valuation. Some one will be left holding the baby again. Will it be the Buyer or the Seller?
We just need some derivatives on this bundled toxic assets to start the game again.
The next trigger points are Results season in US and India. In India, Infy will kick it off around April 10-13th and on Monday, Alcoa kicks it off in the US.
The markets in 4 weeks have gone from 2539 to 3228. I dont believe the fundamentals have changed so fast.
The auto sales have been good last 3 months on lower commodity prices. The auto results should be good so as the IT on rupee depreciation. I would like to see Infy guidance though.
My sense is the markets will take a breather come to Nifty 2800-2950 range and then take off again.
If I was an Operator thats the best trap for retail and dump some shares on them. Operators dont make money if they take markets straight to 1800 or straight up to 6350. There have to be twists and turns.
I would now focus on buying Gold in this period. If rupee strengthens a bit and world price correct a bit to below 900 dollars, I will get Gold at around Rs 14 K.
I would wait for the Elections results before diving into equity. Also, the Geithner plan results will show up in next 2-3 months.
Mid-May to end June will be interesting period. We have the election results as well as US plan results.
Next G-20 might as well have Mayawati addressing the world. Something to think over.
That time, we would see. When hope is destroyed the markets can collapse.
Too many people said in March (including myself) that the markets will hit new lows and they didn't.
Too many people are getting convinced we have hit the bottom (Not myself), the markets may surprise again. This time on the downside.