The public has voted. All the votes have been counted and the winners take away the spoils. It was the best possible verdict (other than clear NDA victory).
The people who held the country to ransom have been shown the door. Manmohan Singh has proved to be a much better politician than most. First the nuclear deal and then this. If we break the results down, the Congress has won mainly because of UP, Kerala, WB, rajasthan and AP.
The real surprise has been AP and they deserve to win, they saved Satyam. Satyam going down would have been real bad news for Indian IT.
The real worry is now that the Congress should not fritter away this mandate like they did in 1984. The next big event lined up domestically is the Budget and the Monsoons. Busget will take at least 2 months to be prepared, and good monsoons should be here in a months time.
Domestically, things seem to well settled now. The Budget would be interesting because all the freebies will have to be balanced out.
The only missing puzzle are global cues. This rally has been fueled by FII money and till they stop pumping in, the markets will keep rallying.
Monday, the markets will gap up 700-800 points. Now, what do you do at this point?
Typically, it is classic sell on news. The smart money had already poured till this stage. At 13000 sensex, nifty 3950, the trailing P/E would be around 19.
Just look at the charts after the Nuclear deal vote of confidence, the markets peaked the next day. We still have not reached nifty 4620 after that.
It would be best to wait for markets to cool in. It would now be retail money jumping in. They are typically the last to get in. There would be definitely corrections on the way.
If the global cues, remain good we are headed to 14500 by July (factoring in good monsoons, which they should be, after all monsoons have failed only only 1-2 times in last 20 years).
If I had bought at lower levels, I would book some profits.If I have not bought, I would sit quietly. The markets always remain here. They do not go anywhere. Markets always give everyone a chance to buy.
There would be a dip after the euphoric rally on Monday.
I would wait for that dip to buy.
Remember the primary goal of investments should be capital preservation. At 13,000, valuations would look stretched. (8K to 13 K in 2 months)
For the moment, time to celebrate.