How come people predict that Nifty will touch 4350 when the market was down last month feb 2009 & now when the market is Bullish you guys predict it will touch 5400
Nifty - A relief rally this week..? This week we may see a brief rally upto 4800 / 4850 / 4900 / 4950 (trade in the pink channel). We may see upmoves within this channel upto levels mentioned above. Trend can reverse if the pink channel is broken -ve on a closing basis. The overall trend remains bearish until 5185 is taken out and Nifty trades above this level for over 3 days. 10 day RSI is trading within a wedge. We may see RSI move to 45 / 50 over the next couple of days. Money Flow index has broken the channel is now facing resistance at 20. Our ultimate target on Nifty remains at 3800.
"However, if 4400 holds we may see the begining of a new upmove." -
-- Clearly stated above --
Feb 15th
The market continues to remain choppy. Nifty continues to trade in a narrow range and finds support within the pink channel. This is our positive scenario until the support is violated (support exists at 4750). We continue to face stiff resistance at 4835.
IIP numbers were great (17%) -but the upmove wasn't strong enough to take out 4835 on a closing basis. Volumes continue to diminish, indicating lack luster.
Nifty will continue to remain choppy all of this week until we see a decisive break (preferably on the downside).
Taking out 4835 will only lead to our next target of 4940. This in my opinion will be a good opportunity to short the index. However, moving below 4740 will again lead to a shorting opportunity for lower targets of 4450.
What do the indicators say?
1. RSI - continues its feeble attempt to inch up along the wedge. 2. MFI - Taking support along the trendline. A break in the trendline on the downside will lead to a fall in the index.
--- Again Supports CLEARLY MENTIONED ABOVE---
I've attached possible EW counts for Nifty. It seem's that there may be some more steam left in the budget rally. Buy for higher targets of 5050/ 5150 with a SL at 4830.
Feb 7 =======
I've attached possible EW counts for Nifty. It seem's that there may be some more steam left in the budget rally. Buy for higher targets of 5050/ 5150 with a SL at 4830.
--- HOPE YOU READ STOP LOSS ??? ---
March 10th ========= We've had a considerable upmove over the last couple of days and I feel that the upmove may not have ended yet. We may see consolidation around the 5000 , 4900 and 4850 levels for sometime (2 - 3 weeks) before any further upmoves. Eitherway, you could choose to take a short position at 5100 (+/-20 pts) and hold those shorts till we reach the levels suggested (5020 / 4950 / 4900 / 4850 or lower - upto 4650) - Your Stop for this trade would be a few points above the previous high (5145).
Alternatively breaking below 4850 / 4650 - we can see moves upto 4300 over the next couple of weeks. This could be our alternative scenario.
This will be a boring market to trade as we can see sideways action over the next 3-4 weeks. Maybe a good time to take a vacation?
How come people predict that Nifty will touch 4350 when the market was down last month feb 2009 & now when the market is Bullish you guys predict it will touch 5400
ReplyDeleteRon -
ReplyDeleteLook at the posts from Feb till date:
Feb 8th
=====
Nifty - A relief rally this week..?
This week we may see a brief rally upto 4800 / 4850 / 4900 / 4950 (trade in the pink channel). We may see upmoves within this channel upto levels mentioned above.
Trend can reverse if the pink channel is broken -ve on a closing basis.
The overall trend remains bearish until 5185 is taken out and Nifty trades above this level for over 3 days.
10 day RSI is trading within a wedge. We may see RSI move to 45 / 50 over the next couple of days. Money Flow index has broken the channel is now facing resistance at 20.
Our ultimate target on Nifty remains at 3800.
"However, if 4400 holds we may see the begining of a new upmove." -
-- Clearly stated above --
Feb 15th
The market continues to remain choppy. Nifty continues to trade in a narrow range and finds support within the pink channel. This is our positive scenario until the support is violated (support exists at 4750). We continue to face stiff resistance at 4835.
IIP numbers were great (17%) -but the upmove wasn't strong enough to take out 4835 on a closing basis. Volumes continue to diminish, indicating lack luster.
Nifty will continue to remain choppy all of this week until we see a decisive break (preferably on the downside).
Taking out 4835 will only lead to our next target of 4940. This in my opinion will be a good opportunity to short the index. However, moving below 4740 will again lead to a shorting opportunity for lower targets of 4450.
What do the indicators say?
1. RSI - continues its feeble attempt to inch up along the wedge.
2. MFI - Taking support along the trendline. A break in the trendline on the downside will lead to a fall in the index.
--- Again Supports CLEARLY MENTIONED ABOVE---
I've attached possible EW counts for Nifty. It seem's that there may be some more steam left in the budget rally. Buy for higher targets of 5050/ 5150 with a SL at 4830.
Feb 7
=======
I've attached possible EW counts for Nifty. It seem's that there may be some more steam left in the budget rally. Buy for higher targets of 5050/ 5150 with a SL at 4830.
--- HOPE YOU READ STOP LOSS ??? ---
March 10th
=========
We've had a considerable upmove over the last couple of days and I feel that the upmove may not have ended yet. We may see consolidation around the 5000 , 4900 and 4850 levels for sometime (2 - 3 weeks) before any further upmoves. Eitherway, you could choose to take a short position at 5100 (+/-20 pts) and hold those shorts till we reach the levels suggested (5020 / 4950 / 4900 / 4850 or lower - upto 4650) - Your Stop for this trade would be a few points above the previous high (5145).
Alternatively breaking below 4850 / 4650 - we can see moves upto 4300 over the next couple of weeks. This could be our alternative scenario.
This will be a boring market to trade as we can see sideways action over the next 3-4 weeks. Maybe a good time to take a vacation?
--- Alternative Views & Stop Loss Mentioned ----
March 18th - No Comments
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Hope you take time to read all of the posts.