Sunday, February 27, 2011

Budget Week

Tomorrow is the big budget and for traders best is to stay out till the event is done and dusted.
The high crude oil prices do not leave too many options for Pranab Mukherjee. Expect a hike in excise duties, hike in Service Tax to 12 pc from the 10 pc. He would increase the exemption limit on Income Tax from 1.6 Lakhs to 2 lakhs given that the polls are round the corner.
The chart for the week is of the difference between 5 EMA and 20 EMA it has give a sell signal and I expect the low of 5177 to be breached. If 5096 is breached then the previous low of 4786 is the next target.
Please do not buy any options as post Budget the volatility comes down drastically and only option writers make any money.
The FIIs have pulled out early 7300 crores in Feb and about 16000 crores from Jan 1st. The domestic institutions have bought 10000 crores worth of shares. The high crude prices and inflation mean stay out of the markets.

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