Sunday, August 19, 2012

Nifty fails to clear the Resistance Area

The Markets gained another 1 pc to close the week at 5366. The markets have now posted 3 weeks of gains. Let us see what next for the markets.



Positives:
1. The FIIs have continued to buy in the markets. They have bought on each and every trading day of the month. They have bought about 6500 crores in addition to the 10000 crores of stocks which they have bought in the month of July.

2. The Mutual Fund related reforms announced by SEBI, the IPO norms all will added to the positive sentiment.

3. The new Finance Minister is one who understands the Capital Markets and I expect the positive sound bytes to continue.

4. The Monsoons are staging a late recovery. This will add on to the positive sentiment.

Negatives:
1. There is 1 big negative. The Crude oil prices have risen to 113 dollars to a barrel. With a weak rupee and government unwilling to raise Diesel prices, it means that the fiscal deficit will continue to rise.

Technicals:
We are in leg 3 of the C wave which started from 4770 with targets in the range of 5700 to 5900.

Leg C 1 was 4770- 5348 = 578 points
C 2 was 5348 - 5032 = 316 points
C 3 - 1 is 5032 - 5398 and ongoing.

I expect a dip to 5150-5200 levels, buying at these levels can lead to very good short term profits.

I also expect the markets to continue to remain positive at least till Diwali this year.

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