People usually have the options to invest in Equities, Real Estate, Gold, Debt funds. The idea of investing is either to make the maximum returns possible from each of these asset classes or above a particular threshold ( which is my preferred option - I am happy with a return of about 16 % year on year). Let us review the Asset classes last year.
For the sake of easy reference, I have used the Valueresearch site and taken the HDFC Top 200, Birla Sunlife G-Sec fund and Kotak Gold fund for reference. These are 3 main asset classes I believe in. Real Estate is a complex ball-game, with huge amounts locked in and the location makes such a big difference in investing is that I will leave it out of the picture.
HDFC Top 200 returned about 31 pc
Kotak Gold fund returned about 9.3 pc and
BSL GSF returned about 10.5 pc
Equity has been a clear winner in 2012. Let us look at how these 3 Asset classes can perform in 2013 and the Risk-Reward in each of them.
Equities:
Equities has been a clear winner over the long-term. It is always good to do a passive SIP in the equities over a period of 20-25 years. HDTC Top 200 has returned a compounded rate of over 22 pc returns over tha past 16 years,
In 2013, I expect the markets to peak and have a fall either after Jan-end/ Feb or in the June July period. 6200-6300 or 6700 levels are the levels to watch out for to book profits and re-allocate the same money to either Gold or Debt funds.
Government Securities (Debt funds):
These are the safest investments to do. I have explained the advantages of Debt funds with G-Secs when interest rates are falling in my previous posts . These funds should return 15-10 pc return if the yields on 10 year bonds fall from 8.10 pc to 7.10 pc which I believe should happen in the next 1 year. Profits from equity should be moved here.
Gold funds:
Gold has had a magnificent run up in the last few year, having gone up 5 times in 7 years. Last year has been ok for Gold with 9.5 returns in rupee terms. Much of the gains have been due to a weak rupee. I expect the rupee not to weaken significantly from these levels and goto maybe 57 at the max. The trigger to watch out for Gold is the 1800 USD levels. The entire year was spent in the range of 1500-1800 USD range.
So, to sum up for 2013, I feel equity should do well in the early part of the year. at the first signs of reversal, one can move the profits to Debt funds and Gold is the joker in the pack. If some catastrophe occurs then Gold is the space to be in. 1800 USD is the key trigger.
The period since 2008 has been tough financially for the world. I would compare this period with the Great Depression lasting from 1929 - 1937. We are almost more than halfway through and I expect a tough 2013 ahead. We should see a boom period after 2014 onwards.
Now is the time to accumulate blue chips in 2013 to prepare for the good years ahead.
Have a safe and Happy New Year ahead.
For the sake of easy reference, I have used the Valueresearch site and taken the HDFC Top 200, Birla Sunlife G-Sec fund and Kotak Gold fund for reference. These are 3 main asset classes I believe in. Real Estate is a complex ball-game, with huge amounts locked in and the location makes such a big difference in investing is that I will leave it out of the picture.
HDFC Top 200 returned about 31 pc
Kotak Gold fund returned about 9.3 pc and
BSL GSF returned about 10.5 pc
Equity has been a clear winner in 2012. Let us look at how these 3 Asset classes can perform in 2013 and the Risk-Reward in each of them.
Equities:
Equities has been a clear winner over the long-term. It is always good to do a passive SIP in the equities over a period of 20-25 years. HDTC Top 200 has returned a compounded rate of over 22 pc returns over tha past 16 years,
In 2013, I expect the markets to peak and have a fall either after Jan-end/ Feb or in the June July period. 6200-6300 or 6700 levels are the levels to watch out for to book profits and re-allocate the same money to either Gold or Debt funds.
Government Securities (Debt funds):
These are the safest investments to do. I have explained the advantages of Debt funds with G-Secs when interest rates are falling in my previous posts . These funds should return 15-10 pc return if the yields on 10 year bonds fall from 8.10 pc to 7.10 pc which I believe should happen in the next 1 year. Profits from equity should be moved here.
Gold funds:
Gold has had a magnificent run up in the last few year, having gone up 5 times in 7 years. Last year has been ok for Gold with 9.5 returns in rupee terms. Much of the gains have been due to a weak rupee. I expect the rupee not to weaken significantly from these levels and goto maybe 57 at the max. The trigger to watch out for Gold is the 1800 USD levels. The entire year was spent in the range of 1500-1800 USD range.
So, to sum up for 2013, I feel equity should do well in the early part of the year. at the first signs of reversal, one can move the profits to Debt funds and Gold is the joker in the pack. If some catastrophe occurs then Gold is the space to be in. 1800 USD is the key trigger.
The period since 2008 has been tough financially for the world. I would compare this period with the Great Depression lasting from 1929 - 1937. We are almost more than halfway through and I expect a tough 2013 ahead. We should see a boom period after 2014 onwards.
Now is the time to accumulate blue chips in 2013 to prepare for the good years ahead.
Have a safe and Happy New Year ahead.
You are right Equity has been a clear winner in all assets class in 2012 & hope this momentum of return will continue in next couple of years.
ReplyDeleteIntraday Nifty Stock Tips