Sunday, March 17, 2013

Will the RBI cut Interest Rates?

The markets are having a roller coaster ride. They are up 1 day and down the other. So, let us see what they have in store for us for the remainder of this financial year. For the last week, the markets were down 0.6 pc.

1. The key event for the next week is the RBI policy on Tuesday. If there is a rate cut, the markets will rally. I think there would be a rate cut in some form. Let us see what the RBI Governor has in store for us.

2. The advance tax figures may point to some revival in growth figures.It is ow for the RBI and the Government to build on these, by providing appropriate stimulus at the right time.

3. The cut in Petrol prices and no hike in Diesel prices means there is no under-recovery on Petrol and a Rs 8.64 under-recovery on Diesel. I suspect once the Parliament closes, we will see a hike a 50 paisa hike in Diesel prices. Diesel subsidies account for 60 pc of fuel subsidies and sooner they are eliminated better it is.

4. Debt funds especially the Gilt funds still are very attractive to be added with a year long horizon. If I check the Value Research site for the last 1 year, Gilt funds have beat Equity and Gold Asset classes.

5. I expect the current rally to pick out in May or June at levels between 6500-7000.

6. It makes sense to add quality stocks on every dip. Even if the markets collapse, the stocks can be averaged out.

7. Elections are scheduled for April 2014. I expect that the markets will peak out much before that. The elections and the period around the elections I believe will offer a good opportunity to accumulate quality stocks. As per the 8 year cycle, the next peak should be in 2016. Typically, 2 years before a new peak, the markets rally the most. 2014 - 2016 is the time to be invested in stocks.

8. Gold is trading at the lower end of its trading range. 1500-1800 USD band has been its trading range for quite some time now. A break on either ends will lead to the to the testing of 1200 USD or 2100 USD.

Let us wait and see what Dr Subba Rao has in store for us. After the credit policy, there are no triggers for the next 3 weeks till the early full year corporate results. If the policy is positive and the liquidity flow continues, markets will rally.

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