Sunday, May 18, 2014

Markets need some cooling off before next up move

The votes are counted, the voters have made their statement and a new government will be sworn in soon. Let us see what we can expect from the markets.

1. It is clearly a buy on dips markets after a multi-year breakout from 6350-6400 levels. This will serve as a deep stop loss.

2. The famous 8 year cycle is due in early 2016. The next 18 months can see markets hit new and record highs.

3. This up move started from 5118 in August last year. The first wave was 6415 - 5118 = 1297 points.
 Wave 2 corrected from 6415 to 5933, a loss of  482 points. wave 1 took 3.5 months and wave 2 took 3 months.

4. Wave 3 started from 5933 and wave 3.1 ended at 6870 or 6819 a gain of 937 points and took a time of 2.5 months.
Wave 3.2 took about a months time and ended at 6639.

Wave 3.1 = 886 points so wave 3.3 = 7525 already done or 8072 or 8958 which should be hit in the august to October time frame.

The current correction can take us to 7100 or 7000.

Now is a good time to book some profits as if the projections go wrong one would be left with nothing in hand.
After some more spikes. I expect a consolidation for about a month before the monsoon and the Budget expectations kick in.

1 comment:

  1. Every businesses either old or a start up business actually see and know that these things may happen. But yes you are right, as soon as everything is settled that is the time when the money and budget kicks in.