Sunday, September 14, 2014

October 19th is the Date to watch

The markets continued to meander while the mid-caps kept up with their upward trajectory. The Election Commission has announced the dates for elections for Maharashtra and Haryana and also the dates for the counting of votes.

1. 15th October is the date when Maharashtra and Haryana goto polls and October 19th is the date when the Results will be out. with J&K polls likely to be postponed to ext year due to the floods, these become key elections.

2. Maharashtra has been under the rule of NCP - Congress for the past 15 years. with the political capital being lost in May, a setback for Congress here would strengthen the hands of BJP. At the same time if NCP Congress pull it off, then there would be a fightback against Modi Government and policies.

3. The FIIs continue to be buyers. Also, Disinvestment is planned in a big way in September October which could mute the rise of the markets.

4. The Markets should peak out between 8200-8500 sometime in the months of October and November.there could be a correction of 10-15 % from the top which would be a buying opportunity.

5. Many mid caps, at least the ones which I hold have doubled or tripled from the cost price. Such stocks it could time to book profits hold on to remainder and enjoy the dividends.

6. We could see some dip to 7900-8000 followed by a rise up towards Diwali. what is significant is the broader markets continue to move up.

7. Diesel prices may actually be cut this month followed by further reduction in Petrol prices. All this bodes well for car sales.August car sales rose on the back of Ganapati festival demand, whereas September and October would be driven by Diwali and Dassera.

Now would not be the time to add fresh stock positions but wait patiently to book profits and await for some correction to jump in.

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