Sunday, February 22, 2015

All Eyes on the Budget

The markets closed flat as expected, since the Budget is the next major event which will occupy the minds of investors in the short term. Let us see where we could be headed.

1. If we get a good budget we may test the 9300-9500 range. If the budget disappoints then we are headed to the 7500-8000 range.

2. The markets after the Modi Government has been elected has gone from about 7200-9000 and traded in this zone. If the budget is not flattering we may go back here.

3. It has been 9 months since the Government has been in power. It has got the benefit of low crude prices by way of which it has collected about 20000 crores in excess tax as well saved at least  an equal amount in terms of subsidy.

4. The FIIs have bought again in the last week. This is an encouraging sign.

5. The Greece problem has been pushed forward by 4 months. So, till end of June the liquidity can continue.

6. This market was booming basically on two factors. Easy liquidity and hope from the Modi Government. The liquidity factor will still continue and the hope factor remains hinged on the Budget.

7. The Global factors have eased off and the Budget session will see important legislation come up for debate. If the Government is able to get these passed without much ruckus, then the markets will rally.

Best strategy is took book profits if we get a god budget and if the markets tank, wait for lower levels to add stocks. This is because if the budget is disappointing, the markets will not rally in a hurry.

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