It was another week of heavy rainfall and the markets to went up. If this continues for a couple of weeks more, the monsoon fears may become irrelevant. Let us see what next for the markets?
1. The monsoons are already in surplus of +26 pc. This against the Met department forecast of -12 pc. Now, for the Met department forecast to come true there has to be a swing of 38 pc overall for which from now on the rains will have to be very poor.
2. Another interesting feature of the rains this time is that it has cover all regions more or less equally. Every year not only the quantum of rain but the distribution is very important.
3. Normal rains means another rate cut could be coming in August-September.
4. The Greece drama continues. For some reasons, the markets seem to be pretty confident it would be all right in the end. No markets are showing signs of panic as in the past.
5. The markets are critically posed in the 8400-8500 resistance zones. This zone is particularly important because if the markets close convincingly above 8500 then we may see new highs coming in the region between 9300-9500.
6. The FIIs have started buying again in a small manner. If the FIIs start buying, then we would see new highs coming.
7. Also, the last fall took about about 15 sessions from 8489 and we have taken about 10 sessions to rise to a high of about 8423. If the markets take out 8500 within the next week, then we are on track for new highs.
8. The monsoon session starts on July 21st and is expected to be a very stormy session. Whatever rise has to come has to come before it starts. This is another indicator to know whether we are good to go for new highs.
1. The monsoons are already in surplus of +26 pc. This against the Met department forecast of -12 pc. Now, for the Met department forecast to come true there has to be a swing of 38 pc overall for which from now on the rains will have to be very poor.
2. Another interesting feature of the rains this time is that it has cover all regions more or less equally. Every year not only the quantum of rain but the distribution is very important.
3. Normal rains means another rate cut could be coming in August-September.
4. The Greece drama continues. For some reasons, the markets seem to be pretty confident it would be all right in the end. No markets are showing signs of panic as in the past.
5. The markets are critically posed in the 8400-8500 resistance zones. This zone is particularly important because if the markets close convincingly above 8500 then we may see new highs coming in the region between 9300-9500.
6. The FIIs have started buying again in a small manner. If the FIIs start buying, then we would see new highs coming.
7. Also, the last fall took about about 15 sessions from 8489 and we have taken about 10 sessions to rise to a high of about 8423. If the markets take out 8500 within the next week, then we are on track for new highs.
8. The monsoon session starts on July 21st and is expected to be a very stormy session. Whatever rise has to come has to come before it starts. This is another indicator to know whether we are good to go for new highs.
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