Sunday, September 20, 2015

RBI rate cut could be next Trigger

The much talked about FED Meeting has come and gone. The uncertainty continues though may be postponed by about 3 months. What else could take the markets higher?

1. The FIIs continued to be net sellers during the week. They bought on Friday. Only if they resume their buying we can see a substantial up move.

2. The Fed decision is now postponed till at least December. The RBI may cut rates at their policy meeting on September 29th. This may prove as a trigger for the markets.

3. Right now, technically we are at a very key junction. 1 more down move may be pending or we may breakout of this correction.

4. 8200 levels become the key levels to watch out. If we break 8200 and go up then we may have broken out of this consolidation phase of more than 6 months. My sense is we may see 1 more correction ending around 7200-7500.

5. Highlight of last leg of down move is that all stocks do not move down equally. Some stocks may have already made their bottoms. It could also be that we correct 200-300 points to correct the up move and then move ahead.

6. Monsoons have also picked up in the last part of the Monsoon season. With low inflation, monsoons out of the way, the RBI will definitely cut rates by at least 25 basis points.

This makes the 7700-7800 region a very strong buying zone. We cannot catch exact tops or exact bottoms. The Risk reward ratio becomes very favorable around 7700-7800 levels to buy.

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