Sunday, February 5, 2017

Possible Triggers for the Markets

All the major triggers have come and gone for big moves in the markets. The few visible triggers let us try and see.

1. RBI policy on 7-8 Feb
A 25 basis rate cut s factored in, anything more and the party continues, anything less and we correct.

2. Election Results on March 11
AAP seems to be ahead in Punjab, and UP is no longer a cakewalk. UP is especially significant, any reversal here will lead to markets falling.

3. Donald Trump Actions
This is the wild card here. What people feared when he got elected is coming true now. The bigger problem seems that his actions seem to have a lot of backers within the US. Trump poses the biggest risk as he may force reversal of funds from the emerging markets.

We seem to have reached the upper end of the markets here and at least a correction before we take out new highs seems likely.

What the markets needs to correct is a trigger. Let us see if the above 3 factors act as a trigger.

We are in a resistance zone and clearing it will lead to next set of resistances are 8850-8900.

Time to wait and watch.

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