Sunday, December 7, 2014

Time for caution at current levels

The RBI policy has come and gone. While the rates have not been cut, a hint of rate cut early next year has been made. The markets corrected slightly, but individual stocks continued rising. Let us see what next for the markets.

1. 1 of the key triggers for the markets, the interest rate cut has come and gone. The stocks, especially the banking stocks were rising on speculation of a rate cut. The Interest Rates on 10 year gilts has fallen to 7.93 pc which is a 16 month low.

2. The Parliament session has been in progress for almost 2 weeks and no major reform bill has been passed. 1 more trigger for the market has not materialized.

3. The FIIs will be on holidays after 2 weeks and the inflows may slow down. The markets towards the second half of December will be listless.

4. The crude oil prices have stabilized around 70 dollars a barrel. The Government has increased the excise duties on Petrol and Diesel. This will ensure that the fiscal deficit targets are met but at the same time, the citizens do not get the full benefit of crude oil price reduction.

5. Internationally, there are no major triggers for the markets right now.

6. It makes sense to book part profits and buy the stocks back when the markets correct.

Right now, it is the time to sit back and enjoy. Book part profits and wait for the markets to correct to resume buying again. markets have rallied from 7724 to 8627 a rise of almost 900 points. Usually the markets rally 900-1000 points before retracting 30 - 40 pc of the gains.

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