1. The market has fallen on 7 occasions and risen on 5 occasions.3 out of the 4 occasions were in 2000, 2001 and 2002. In recent years the markets have had a negative January.
2. The markets had given a double digit negative fall in 2008 (16.1%) and and 2011 (10.2%)
3. The rises have been fairly muted while the falls have been quite severe.The max rise has been 8.6% and the max fall has been 16.1%. The average fall has been 6.4 % and the average rise has been 4.64%
4. If we take December closing of 4624, the on closing basis we have a range of 4328 and 4827.
5. If we take the sequence, the market has always followed a Fibonacci sequence before reversing. 3 positive closes, 3 negatives closes, 2 positive closes, last 4 closes have been negative so to complete the Fibonacci sequence this Jan should also be negative.
6. If January closes again on a negative note, then February will be positive.Never have markets given more than 3 negative closes in a row.
Markets update:
The markets are stuck in a range. Short below 4585 and go long above 4732. Till then it is stuck in a range.
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