Friday, July 3, 2009

Economic Survey and Rail Budget point to a Reform driven Budget

The Economic survey pointed to a reform oriented budget. It spoke of all the things which are needed to drive growth ahead.
The Rail Budget was good in the terms that they were not many populist measures which would burn a hole in the Railways pocket.
The Budget could be a good one because:

1. Government has a strong mandate. This is the year where its most likely reforms can be done.

2. The government has taken a tough decision like hiking fuel prices.

All this points to a reform driven budget.

The key things I expect from the budget are:

1. Roadmap for disinvestment.

2. More sops in income tax for the housing sector.

3. More tax benefits for salaried class investing in Infrastructure Bonds.

4. Removal of FBT and rationalization of tax structure.

5. Change in Income Tax slabs.

If the budget is a good one, the markets may rally till 4700-4750.

Remember this is the last positive trigger and may well be the last upmove before a good correction.

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