Sunday, November 8, 2009

The Broad Picture: Are we onto new highs again?

The Key event for me in the past week was the RBI picking 200 tonnes of Gold. We have come a full circle since the time, the Indian Government pledged gold with the IMF in 1991.
Are we then on our way to new highs?

The Corporate Results, by and large have been good to excellent. The bottom lines of the companies have grown more than the top lines. This shows companies are cutting costs, getting rid of the excess flab accumulated during the good times.
Autos, IT companies have done exceedingly well. At the same time, dangers lurk around the corner.
The food inflation is almost 13 pc. The SLR has been hiked and CRR are a matter of time. The early signs of revival are there, but they need to be on a sustainable basis once the crutches of stimulus are removed.
The government has come out with a disinvestment list. This bodes well for the economy and the stock markets. Governments should be in the business of running the country not businesses. This would increase the depth of Indian Markets as well as bridge the fiscal deficit.
Domestically things look good.
The catch is in the global economy. The UK government has extended bail-outs to the UK Banks. The US interest rates are almost close to zero yet again.
US risks going into a long period of no growth like the Japanese did in the mid-90s. Also, the current liquidity is leading to the Dollar carry trade like Yen carry trade.
Once, the US dollar strengthens, that is when the US Interest Rates rise on the back of Inflation, the pack of cards will collapse.
The US is the world leader. Unless US consumes, the rest of the world will not have a big audience for their exports. For all the talk of de-coupling, the global markets are still integrated.
The rise of Gold prices to 1100 dollars is seen as a flight to safety. Throughout history, Gold is the only asset to have existed for thousands of years.
Gold was Rs 6500 in 2005 and now is Rs 16500.
My preferred picks on declines would be Sugar, IT companies, Autos and Gold.
I would err on the side of caution now and stay light.

Technically speaking, the 4800-4900 is littered with resistances. We have the 5 week ema at around 4867, then the 20 and the 50 day emas in the same band. Also, the retracements for the entire fall from 5182 to 4539 falls from 4860-4936.

I would go long only on a decisive close above 4900 or short below 4700. Till then watch.

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