Sunday, November 1, 2009

Is the upmove over?

It was an action packed F&O expiry and a one way journey down. There are several interesting observations to be made which may suggest the entire rally from March 09 bottoms may be over.

1. The trend line joining the lows from March is broken decisively on weekly and daily basis.

2. The FIIs and DIIs were net net on the sidelines for the month of October. Both were almost net zero in terms of money pumped. The BSE link from where I got the data.
This means that DII turned neutral to negative since August and now the FIIs have joined the same view. This makes November very critical.

3. Even though the market has corrected 7-8% from the tops, many stocks have lost much more, indicating a brutal market wide sell-off.

4. On the basis of 5 week Ema which comes to 4903, we have decisively broken it for the first time since March'09. This is the second weekly close below 5 week ema.

5. The 50 day ema was broken without much ado around 4850. The next support comes around 4600 odd levels.

6. The heartening thing to note was that both FII and DII were net buyers on Friday to the tune of 500 odd crores each. In spite of this the markets fell. Maybe a bear trap for shorters.

7. The Dow closed down 250 points on Monday nut it has also reached the oversold levels and a bounce is expected.

8. The RSI(14) is at 31. This is at lowest levels since March and in the oversold levels. A bounce ca be expected any month. Till 50 EMA is decisively taken out, I would use rallies to short.

9. The RBI credit policy with a hike of 100 basis points is a good step. RBI is ahead of the curve. Better pain now, that a bubble being created.

10. The US GDP growth of 3.5% is largely due to the cash for clunkers scheme and fiscal injections.

Conclusion: Those who have booked out, enjoy the fall and be ready to buy at lower levels. The rises can be used to get out. Those who have missed out the fall as a shorting opportunity, the first fall is always difficult to catch. I would wait for a confirmation of a second weekly close below 4900.

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