Sunday, October 27, 2013

Correction possible, but markets in an uptrend

The markets had a mild correction for the week, correcting about 0.7 pc from the previous week close. Overall, the markets are firmly in an up trend. Let us see what the pre-Diwali firecrackers are in store, if any.


1. This is a liquidity based rally and no mistake should be made about this. Once, the plug is pulled for whatever reason be it ease of tapering or hung parliament, the markets will collapse.

2. 1 leg up from 5118 is over at 6142 and the correction from it ended at 5701. If we are in a third wave up, then it can be a fast up move from 5701.
The first leg may be over at 6252 and we may correct to 6042, 5977, 5912. The up trend will be over at 5811.

3. The market rally is taking Pharma and IT stocks to new highs. We should wait and watch for the other stocks to join the party.

4. As I see the election scenario building some kind of Modi wave is surely building up. If that happens, then the markets will zoom upwards.

5. The 4 states which goto elections in November, their results will be out on 8th December which will be the key deciding factor for the rally.

Markets tend to rally in November to Feb period. If that is the case, then the markets may see new all time highs. The current scenario is that I am not putting in fresh money but selectively looking to book out profits.

A safe strategy remains to invest in fixed income and lock in the rates.

Alternatively, one can buy good quality stocks so in case the markets fall then one can always average them out.

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