The markets gained 1.3 pc to close at 5907. The markets rallied smartly on Friday only to give back all the gains. The markets are currently awaiting fresh triggers. Let us try and examine what they could be.
1. The Results season is upon us.Infy Results will be upon us on Friday 11th October. They will set a trend for the markets.1 non scientific observation I have made is Infy Results usually on a Friday are quite bad. Lets see if the trend continues.
2. The US Government shutdown is still going on. If not resolved by Oct 17th, the debt ceiling will be breached leading to further problems. The markets are awaiting resolution to this problem.
3. The Rupee has strengthened to about 61 and if this continues then the stock markets will continue to do well.
4. Technically, the Nifty must clear the 5950-6000 range convincingly to go up.
5. October is a long series and it has often been seen in such long series, the markets are dormant over a period of time.
6. The bonds seem to be settling in the 8.5 % to 8.7 % range. Real recovery will not start until the bond yields come down to 7-7.25 pc range and the interest rates begin to fall.
The 3 options posted in last week's post still hold good.
From here, where the markets can be anybody's guess. There are 3 options:
a. Straight up from here (Least Likely)
b. Correct to 5500 levels and then rally up
c. Continue with the long term correction.
Options b and c have equal likelihood of occurring.
1. The Results season is upon us.Infy Results will be upon us on Friday 11th October. They will set a trend for the markets.1 non scientific observation I have made is Infy Results usually on a Friday are quite bad. Lets see if the trend continues.
2. The US Government shutdown is still going on. If not resolved by Oct 17th, the debt ceiling will be breached leading to further problems. The markets are awaiting resolution to this problem.
3. The Rupee has strengthened to about 61 and if this continues then the stock markets will continue to do well.
4. Technically, the Nifty must clear the 5950-6000 range convincingly to go up.
5. October is a long series and it has often been seen in such long series, the markets are dormant over a period of time.
6. The bonds seem to be settling in the 8.5 % to 8.7 % range. Real recovery will not start until the bond yields come down to 7-7.25 pc range and the interest rates begin to fall.
The 3 options posted in last week's post still hold good.
From here, where the markets can be anybody's guess. There are 3 options:
a. Straight up from here (Least Likely)
b. Correct to 5500 levels and then rally up
c. Continue with the long term correction.
Options b and c have equal likelihood of occurring.
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