In the absence of major triggers, the markets continued its side ways movements ending the week 0.2 pc lower. the next week is the Vote on Account or the interim budget. This is expected to be another non - event. Let us explore the key triggers for the markets.
1. The inflation number is easing up which means that it may be the end of rate hikes for the moment. Food inflation is coming down and this is a good sign.
2. The Government has made good money in the spectrum auction. this should lower Government borrowing and also ease the fiscal deficit. even though, the bonds yields are not reflecting, it means lower interest rates.
3. The FIIs continue to be mild sellers in the first 2 weeks of February. This also explains why the market has gone no where in Feb. The markets are down by 0.7 pc in the first 2 weeks of the month.
4. SBI results were poor and the PSU banks continue to labor under the bad loans. They are a bet only for those willing to wait for 3-5 years after which they may reward the patience handsomely.
5. As per Elliot, we are correcting the rise from 5700.
It was stated that,
"""
The range for the month can be 5850-5950-6200-6300. Feb can be a historically a very volatile month.
As per Elliot, we had stated,
A rough labeling of the waves from 5118 can be as follows:
1. 5118 - 6142 (1024 points)
2. 6142 - 5700 (442 points)
3. 5700 - 6415 (715 points)
4. 6415 and on going
Now, a logical end to this wave would be at 6141, 6057, 5973 or 5843 which matches with our figures in point 1.
we seem to be in the last leg of the down move A-B-C.
A was 6415 - 6130
B was 6130 - 6358
C could be 6358 to 5896 """
After a small up move, 1 last down move would be still pending.
All in all, a dull period for the markets. Time to lock into debt and fixed income instruments.
1. The inflation number is easing up which means that it may be the end of rate hikes for the moment. Food inflation is coming down and this is a good sign.
2. The Government has made good money in the spectrum auction. this should lower Government borrowing and also ease the fiscal deficit. even though, the bonds yields are not reflecting, it means lower interest rates.
3. The FIIs continue to be mild sellers in the first 2 weeks of February. This also explains why the market has gone no where in Feb. The markets are down by 0.7 pc in the first 2 weeks of the month.
4. SBI results were poor and the PSU banks continue to labor under the bad loans. They are a bet only for those willing to wait for 3-5 years after which they may reward the patience handsomely.
5. As per Elliot, we are correcting the rise from 5700.
It was stated that,
"""
The range for the month can be 5850-5950-6200-6300. Feb can be a historically a very volatile month.
As per Elliot, we had stated,
A rough labeling of the waves from 5118 can be as follows:
1. 5118 - 6142 (1024 points)
2. 6142 - 5700 (442 points)
3. 5700 - 6415 (715 points)
4. 6415 and on going
Now, a logical end to this wave would be at 6141, 6057, 5973 or 5843 which matches with our figures in point 1.
we seem to be in the last leg of the down move A-B-C.
A was 6415 - 6130
B was 6130 - 6358
C could be 6358 to 5896 """
After a small up move, 1 last down move would be still pending.
All in all, a dull period for the markets. Time to lock into debt and fixed income instruments.
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