The markets have a strange tendency of repeating the cycles. There are 2 famous cycles, 1 is buy in November and Sell in Feb. Another is buy back what you have sold in Feb back in April. let us explore the Feb April cycle.
1. If you consider the lowest price of the Nifty in April, it is aalmost always 5 % cheaper than the highest price In Feb. what this means is that almost always you can get prices of stocks cheaper in April, than in Feb and March.
2. In the previous 2 election years of 2004 and 2006, there have been massive crashes after the election results in May. The markets always give 1 buying opportunity in the April to May period.
3. In the past 2 years, the trend has slightly changed with the prices being marginally more expensive in April than in February.
The question which arises is should we book profits in Feb itself or wait till March.
1. In the past 4 years, the budget has not brought in any unpleasant surprise. This has lead the markets higher in March.
2. This year there is only a vote on account on Feb 17th, which will not influence the markets in a major way.
Also, in the past 4-5 years, the market has deviated from the tendency to make a top in Feb-march but later during the year.
Key takeaways:
One can gradually book profits and take some money of the table. There should be no hurry to jump and buy.
Buying should be done only in quality stocks at the right price.
1. If you consider the lowest price of the Nifty in April, it is aalmost always 5 % cheaper than the highest price In Feb. what this means is that almost always you can get prices of stocks cheaper in April, than in Feb and March.
2. In the previous 2 election years of 2004 and 2006, there have been massive crashes after the election results in May. The markets always give 1 buying opportunity in the April to May period.
3. In the past 2 years, the trend has slightly changed with the prices being marginally more expensive in April than in February.
The question which arises is should we book profits in Feb itself or wait till March.
1. In the past 4 years, the budget has not brought in any unpleasant surprise. This has lead the markets higher in March.
2. This year there is only a vote on account on Feb 17th, which will not influence the markets in a major way.
Also, in the past 4-5 years, the market has deviated from the tendency to make a top in Feb-march but later during the year.
Key takeaways:
One can gradually book profits and take some money of the table. There should be no hurry to jump and buy.
Buying should be done only in quality stocks at the right price.
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