Sunday, March 30, 2014

How have the markets fared in April historically?

March seems to be a very positive month with the markets already gaining almost 7 pc. We are in uncharted territory now, and let us look at how the markets usually behave in April.

1. We have had a rally from 5933 to 6703 almost a rally of 770 points. A breather of 300-400 points is necessary to begin the next move up.

2. Out of last 13 years, April has been negative 6 times which does not say much. Every year, the low has always been at least 3-4 pc compared to March closing which means 1 visit to 6400-6450 zone is likely.

3. Also, the high has always been 1-2 pc higher than March close. So, either at beginning of the month or end of month we will see the markets going to 6750-6800 levels.

4. When March is positive, then April also generally tends to be a net net positive month. April is also a month where there is no substantial downside or upside so a range bound month is likely ahead.

5. The likely range comes to 6400 to 6900.

If we look at the Elliot waves, then some kind of wave seems to be coming to a close from 5933 to 67xx. since, we are in a bull market the correction should bring the market to 6521, 6408 or 6320. I do not see the markets going below these levels in the month of April.

Strategy for the elections:
Looking at the markets at new highs, and breaking the log term resistance of 6358, best is to buy on dips and hence portfolio with Puts nearer to counting day.

1 comment:

  1. sir, ur trailing stoploss method is very nice. Today ur reversal level is 6697, and NIFTY today hit Low @6696.9 & spurted up 30 + points. this is really amazing. can u let know ur trailing stoploss method?

    i am a regular eader of ur website for last 6-7 months, i noticed u have captured few trending moves in the last few months like bounce from 5100 Nifty, BUY @5400, exit @5900, BUY @6040, exit @6487 etc. hats off to u.