The month of February is behind us. The range arrived at statistically was between 5850 - 6300 and the markets played true to form by being in the range from 5933-6282. Let us see how the month of March behaves historically.
1. It is the last month of the financial year and has given negative returns 8 out of past 13 year,. when the month of Feb has been positive like for this year, the returns have been negative 5 out of 7 times.Only in 2006 we have seen a massive rally in the month of March.
2. In 10 out of 13 years, the March low has been below the Feb close. This seems likely this year too since the markets have closed at the monthly high point.
3. The average gain for the month of March has been -2.2 pc, also march is susceptible to huge swings from 10 pc loss to 10 pc gain. This gives us a range of 5640 - 6903.
4. Average low below feb close is around 4.5 % which gives us a target of 5994 on the downside. average high has been around 5 % which gives us 6590.
So now we have the broader range between 5640 - 6903 and within this range between 5994 - 6590
1. It is the last month of the financial year and has given negative returns 8 out of past 13 year,. when the month of Feb has been positive like for this year, the returns have been negative 5 out of 7 times.Only in 2006 we have seen a massive rally in the month of March.
2. In 10 out of 13 years, the March low has been below the Feb close. This seems likely this year too since the markets have closed at the monthly high point.
3. The average gain for the month of March has been -2.2 pc, also march is susceptible to huge swings from 10 pc loss to 10 pc gain. This gives us a range of 5640 - 6903.
4. Average low below feb close is around 4.5 % which gives us a target of 5994 on the downside. average high has been around 5 % which gives us 6590.
So now we have the broader range between 5640 - 6903 and within this range between 5994 - 6590
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