Sunday, August 17, 2014

Weekly Gains by the Market but....

The Markets gained 2.9 pc in the last week based on hope in the budget speech. There are some disconcerting signs in the market.

1. The markets are only 50 points away from the previous all time high but many of the mid caps are 20-30 pc down from the top. This is a disconcerting sign.

2. The FIIs continue to be net buyer albeit at a smaller rate. The DIIs have out bought the FIIs by 3:1 ratio.

3. Modi speech was the correct one but unfortunately not enough to enthuse those who are looking for a quick gain from the markets. At least 1 should have the patience to hold for the next 18 months.

4. There are have been critical turn dates sometime in July and middle of November, so depending on how the markets react we can get a 10-15 pc correction from the top.

5. The structure is in place for the next Bull Run, but the Government will go slow, first wait for the Assembly Elections in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand out of the way. The dates are supposed to be announced on August 20th and the model code of conduct will be in place anytime soon.

6. From the strategic long term point of view it makes sense to focus on Assembly elections, increase the tally in Rajya Sabha and then go for the big bang reforms.

Strategy remains the same, buy on dips good quality stocks which withstand the test of time and ot look at that them everyday or even every week. Businesses do not change everyday.

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