Sunday, February 28, 2016

DownTrend Continues

Unless the Union Budget pulls off something which is groundbreaking, I can see the down trend continuing. The DIIs have started selling now and there seems to be no respite to the markets.

1. The latest casualty of the global downtrend is the valuations of the Startups and Flipkarts of the world taking a hit. Morgan Stanley has written down the valuation of Flipkart by 27 pc.

2. The DIIs too have started to sell big. This is a matter of concern. For the month of Feb, with just 1 trading day left  FII have sold 5700 crores and DII have sold 6800 crores.

3. Technically, Feb is supposed to be a flat month but this has been proved wrong this time. Unless there is a big rally on Monday, the market is down 7.1 pc for the month and 11.5 % for the year so far.

4. If the previous lows are broken then the next supports come in around 6450-6550.

5. 1 thing is clear, the time frame for getting return on Investment has got enlarged. 1 would have to wait at least 18 months for stocks bought in the current downtrend.

6. There seems to be no sign of the passage of the GST bill in the Parliament. 1 major trigger for the markets to rally is missing.

7. Unless the FII flow gets back to normal, this down turn will continue. Every rally will be sold off into.

8. I can see this Government losing focus of the issues at end getting side tracked. Unless Modi concentrates on reforms, I see it getting increasingly difficult he being re-elected again.

All in all it is a tough time all around. The Fixed Deposits are not earning more than 7.5 % rate of interest, Real Estate is sluggish and the stock markets are down.


  1. Dear Sir,
    U can also give ur ideas on Bank Nifty it would be helpful for the futures trading as margin money is less in compare with NF50. Regards & Tks