Sunday, February 21, 2016

No Pre-Budget Rally this year

Contrary to expectations, we did not have a pre budget rally this year. There are various reasons for it and the way the global cues are factored in, the market may not have a pre budget rally after all.

1. The FIIs continue to pull out money. They have pulled out about 6500 crores so far in Feb and are sellers almost everyday.

2. The Sovereign Wealth funds which had invested their Oil Earnings in India have now begun to pull their money out. That is 1 more reason why we see high FII sell figures.

3. The passage of the GST bill becomes very crucial for the Government this session. With the domestic politics getting ugly to say the least.

4. Technically, the market is stuck in the range between 6850 to 7400. The previous support of 7242 will become a very key factor for further up moves. Technically, we are in a sideways zone.

5. If we look at the big picture, I do not see this market going anywhere for the next few months. It will give very good buying opportunities.7500 and then 7600 remain very key resistances for the market.

6. The Investment Alternatives are very less in these conditions. Fixed Income Instruments are barely getting anyone more than 8 pc. Equities still remain the best asset class to invest. The only change is that the instant gain period is over.

7. The Rail Budget gets presented next week and that will present clues about the Union Budget. It is very clear unless there is something dramatic in the budget or the passage of the GST bill the markets will continue to totter for some more time.

The Silver lining is all major corrections have not lasted more than 12-14 months and we almost 1 year since we hit the top in March 2015 after the Union Budget.

No comments:

Post a Comment