Sunday, July 27, 2014

Expiry week looms large

The markets gained 1.7 pc during the week to close at 7791. Next week is expiry and a truncated trading week to boot with a holiday on Tuesday.

1. The FII buying continues but with a slightly reduced buying intensity.

2. The monsoon has well and truly set in over the country and it may just be a case of delayed monsoon cycle where the entire cycle is pushed forward by 1 month.

3. The markets for this week have expiry and only 3 days to expiry. The markets would be bullishness above7841 and a range of +- 200 points can be expected over this week.

4. The fundamentals seem to be improving with sentiment sky rocketing.

5. Only warning sign for the BJP is the Uttarakhand by election results where the Congress swept all 3 seats including 1 seat held by the BJP for 20 years. This brings them closer to 35 seats and the Congress Government in Uttarakhand becomes safer. The longer term implications are that the BJP needs to be careful especially with elections in key states like J&K, Haryana, Maharashtra looming large in next 3 months.

6. Winning in these key States is essential so that the Rajya Sabha strength of the BJP increases.

How Modi handles the next 4 months will define his first term in office. Interesting times ahead.

Stay tuned for a special update on Nifty Long term Elliot Wave Charts on Tuesday morning.

1 comment:

  1. Though not a big fan of Elliott Wave theory, long-term charts and their interpretation are always useful. Look forward to your post on Tuesday.