The markets gained 3.2 pc for the week and closed above the previous highs to close at a lifetime high. The pre-budget rally has well and truly begun and the time to part book profits is very well near.
1. The markets have begun to run up and they need to take a pause somewhere before the next serious up move. Budget day becomes very critical as I dont see any correction before the budget now. The Rail Budget on Tuesday will be a pointer to the Union Budget.
2. The Union Budget will be high on reform announcements and could lead to an upward burst. Overall we are now in a secular bull market which i see continuing at least for the next 14-16 months. The 8 year cycle points to a top around early 2016 late 2015.
3. The FIIs in the last week have bought about 60 pc of what they had bought totally in the month of June.
4. The Iraqi crisis seems to be easing a bit. 1 co-relation is that a bull run in equities coincides with a bull run in Oil.
5. The monsoons have arrived in Mumbai, there would be poor monsoons but the impact remains to be seen. The handling of the Iraqi crisis has already earned the Modi Government credit and good will in Kerala and the rest of the country.
6. I expect some big bang announcements in the budget signalling the intent of the Government. Budget is meant to signal the intent and the implementation would be next 16-18 months.
7. This rally has legs to go and targets of 12000-15000 Nifty do not seem unrealistic. in fact, I see similarities between June 2006 and now when the markets almost doubled. In June 2006, the Nifty was 3128 and peaked at 6357 in early Jan 2008.
Now, is the time to build a portfolio of good stocks and remain invested. Use short term peaks to book profits as we do not know when the eventual top will come.
1. The markets have begun to run up and they need to take a pause somewhere before the next serious up move. Budget day becomes very critical as I dont see any correction before the budget now. The Rail Budget on Tuesday will be a pointer to the Union Budget.
2. The Union Budget will be high on reform announcements and could lead to an upward burst. Overall we are now in a secular bull market which i see continuing at least for the next 14-16 months. The 8 year cycle points to a top around early 2016 late 2015.
3. The FIIs in the last week have bought about 60 pc of what they had bought totally in the month of June.
4. The Iraqi crisis seems to be easing a bit. 1 co-relation is that a bull run in equities coincides with a bull run in Oil.
5. The monsoons have arrived in Mumbai, there would be poor monsoons but the impact remains to be seen. The handling of the Iraqi crisis has already earned the Modi Government credit and good will in Kerala and the rest of the country.
6. I expect some big bang announcements in the budget signalling the intent of the Government. Budget is meant to signal the intent and the implementation would be next 16-18 months.
7. This rally has legs to go and targets of 12000-15000 Nifty do not seem unrealistic. in fact, I see similarities between June 2006 and now when the markets almost doubled. In June 2006, the Nifty was 3128 and peaked at 6357 in early Jan 2008.
Now, is the time to build a portfolio of good stocks and remain invested. Use short term peaks to book profits as we do not know when the eventual top will come.
Good perceptive analysis, have been following for quite couple of years.
ReplyDeleteKeep going!
Hello Dear,
ReplyDeleteReally good analysis by you. Keep it up